NFBC and Prospects1500: Outfield

25 different players and not a single Angel in the outfield. Oh well…

Note: Draft positions were exported around January 31.

Andrew Benintendi

NFBC draft position – Average: 138 | Minimum: 99 | Maximum: 166

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 1st Red Sox

The more I read about this kid, the more I wonder if he should be going on average closer to his minimum. And with my third and final draft-and-hold starting today, I may just bite the bullet and snag him in the 7th round if he’s available.

Hunter Renfroe

NFBC draft position – Average: 236 | Minimum: 201 | Maximum: 283

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 3rd Padres

Definite hyperbole, but perhaps no 36 plate appearances have had more drafters dreaming than Renfroe’s last year. And as a Clemson fan, I can appreciate the power of his name (albeit slightly different spelling).

Expecting a repeat from last year’s limited at-bats is a fool’s game, but the power is legit. I just will not be taking him as early as is required.

Manuel Margot

NFBC draft position – Average: 251 | Minimum: 184| Maximum: 353

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 2nd Padres

Margot and Jankowski are the current frontrunners for the starting CF job in San Diego. Failing that, Margot could still earn one of the two corner OF spots (Dickerson and Renfroe are the other two considerations).

No matter how it plays out, Margot should get a reasonable number of ABs this year which will allow him to contribute nicely to SB and runs without hurting your average.

Editor’s Note: Margot added post-publication

Josh Bell

NFBC draft position – Average: 281| Minimum: 176 | Maximum: 336

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 2nd Pirates

Now that Bell may miss the start of the season, it’ll be interesting to see if his draft stock his hurt at all. I think it would be foolish to penalize him too much. The season is long and a player with the hitting chops (and accompanying average) and good-enough power do not come in droves.

And if you’re in OBP leagues, Bell is a great player to target.

Andrew Toles

NFBC draft position – Average: 331 | Minimum: 200 | Maximum: 424

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 10th Dodgers

Toles is somewhat similar to Bell but with less power and more speed.

Aaron Judge

NFBC draft position – Average: 377 | Minimum: 267 | Maximum: 462

Prospects1500 Team Rank: New York Yankees

Judge offers upside not always found in the 25th round (average pick). In my current draft, I suspect I will be targeting him even a round or two earlier just to get one share this year.

Roman Quinn

NFBC draft position – Average: 385 | Minimum: 287 | Maximum: 477

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 11th Phillies

Quinn does two things well: steal bases and get hurt. There are safer steal plays than Quinn.

Charlie Tilson

NFBC draft position – Average: 401 | Minimum: 337 | Maximum: 495

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 10th Chicago White Sox

On the surface Tilson looks somewhat similar to Toles except 4-5 rounds later.

Lewis Brinson

NFBC draft position – Average: 437 | Minimum: 343 | Maximum: 505

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 1st Milwaukee Brewers

I have yet to consider Brinson in my drafts as he has gone above his average round in both leagues. If he gets the playing time, he could easily earn a 29th round pick status. As a consolation prize, I have been targeting fellow Brewer (unranked in Brewers Top 50) Ryan Cordell in the later rounds, as well as in deep dynasty leagues.

Mitch Haniger

NFBC draft position – Average: 442 | Minimum: 310 | Maximum: 660

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 12th Mariners

Haniger is actually my favorite target over Brinson at similar draft positions. He appears to have the inside track to the starting lineup to open the season. If nothing else, opportunity gives him the slight edge.

Austin Meadows

NFBC draft position – Average: 512 | Minimum: 322 | Maximum: 614

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 1st Pirates

Especially after suffering an injury and losing the opportunity  to get extra reps in the Arizona Fall League, I think Meadows is one year off from contributing. However, if the Pirates suffer an injury or two, it will be interesting to see what the 21/22 year old can do.

Tyler Austin

NFBC draft position – Average: 541 | Minimum: 410 | Maximum: 634

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 34th Yankees

This seems about right. No guarantees of playing time (or at least not much) this year. And I expect OK, but not great, results when he does. Give me a more secure roster spot at this point in the draft.

Peter O’Brien

NFBC draft position – Average: 552 | Minimum: 419 | Maximum: 748

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 4th Royals

This will be the year we get to find out if O’Brien is more AAAA hitter or MLB hitter. The strikeout rate is horrendous but the power is his carrying tool. I’m not buying into O’Brien long-term in dynasty leagues. But in a re-draft league, he could be a nice late source of power. . He absolutely requires average protection unless you are running away with the category, either winning or losing.

Ben Gamel

NFBC draft position – Average: 553 | Minimum: 390 | Maximum: 700

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 11th Seattle Mariners

Somewhat surprising to see Gamel this far down. If he can win the primary backup role for the Mariners, he could easily over-earn his draft value.

Bradley Zimmer

NFBC draft position – Average: 561 | Minimum: 362 | Maximum: 744

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 3rd Indians

Have to like the upside at this point in the draft.

Clint Frazier

NFBC draft position – Average: 606 | Minimum: 488 | Maximum: 750

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 1st Yankees

I was prepared to write off Frazier for 2017 and make a statement that this would be a wasted pick, but Roster Resource is projecting an early 2017 appearance.

I don’t know what to think about that, given that he is a) not on the 40-man roster and b) blocked by Judge/Hicks/Williams? from reaching the majors. And at this point in his career, the Yankees want to make sure he is getting consistent playing time.

So, perhaps Frazier is worth the flyer (especially if you get him a round or two after his average slot)because if he does get  the call to New York, he

will be in the lineup.

Greg Allen

NFBC draft position – Average: 614 | Minimum: 566 | Maximum: 649

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 9th Indians

To borrow from DJ Khaled, all Allen does is steal! And I him to do a lot of that next year in Cleveland. But I’m not buying this year. Best bet is a Terrance Gore type performance in September.

Brandon Nimmo

NFBC draft position – Average: 619 | Minimum: 485 | Maximum: 724

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 23rd New York Mets

Nimmo seems a somewhat polarizing prospect. But, it seems plausible Nimmo can carve out a nice little career as a 4th/5th OF. He seems like a comparable player to Brito, except he should have more ABs this year.

Jesse Winker

NFBC draft position – Average: 621 | Minimum: 547 | Maximum: 750

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 3rd Reds

Lourdes Gurriel

NFBC draft position – Average: 626 | Minimum: 475 | Maximum: 750

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 6th Blue Jays

I honestly have no idea what to expect from Gurriel this year. But if you play on Fantrax, his myriad positions make him an intriguing flyer.

Victor Robles

NFBC draft position – Average: 633 | Minimum: 528 | Maximum: 731

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 1st Nationals

If Vegas set the over/under at 20 ABs this year for Robles, I would take the under. Genuinely surprised he is averaging 42nd round in NFBC drafts.

Socrates Brito

NFBC draft position – Average: 670 | Minimum: 588 | Maximum: 730

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 9th Diamondbacks

You have to be pulling for a guy named Socrates. Nerds unite!

And there’s reason to believe Brito will provide at least a few weeks of balanced production during the year. He can contribute in both HR and SB while not killing your average. Hopefully! His K:BB ratio leaves something to be desired.

Nick Williams

NFBC draft position – Average: 675 | Minimum: 570 | Maximum: 741

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 3rd Phillies

Williams should give owners a bit more ABs than Cozens. And given his company that late, re-drafters could do a lot worse. Unfortunately, Williams is not the type player you’re going to get cheaply in deep dynasty leagues to helplate.

Dylan Cozens

NFBC draft position – Average: 687 | Minimum: 593 | Maximum: 731

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 6th Phillies

Cozens gave his owners something to dream about after going 40/21 last year in AA, especially if you pay no attention to the strikeout rate.

Re-drafts can probably expect some late-season production but even that does not appear guaranteed as Quinn and Williams project to be ahead of Cozens in the path to the majors.

Matt Olson

NFBC draft position – Average: 701 | Minimum: 657 | Maximum: 730

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 10th Oakland Athletics

After some quick looking, I like Olson. Not really sure why I haven’t considered him in my first two drafts (drafted in 49th and undrafted, respectively).

He’s had a good walk rates and decent power throughout the minors. He is currently on the 40-man roster. He is the best left-handed bat not projected to start the year on  the big league team that may y have a predominantly right-hand team.

Brett Phillips

NFBC draft position – Average: 708 | Minimum: 677 | Maximum: 734

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 13th Brewers

I’ve now completed two NFBC drafts and Phillips has been near the top my queue both times as the draft winded down. Yet, I never could pull the trigger.

Roster Resource estimates he will appear late in 2017, probably once the rosters expand. In the next few years, I suspect Phillips will, next year, be taken at least 10-20 rounds earlier than this slot. But this year, I obviously don’t believe he will be a factor. And, based on a 47th round slot, many others as well.


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