Our last overall top prospects ranking was June 2022, so it’s definitely time for the latest edition. The last one didn’t include 2022 MLB draftees as that event hadn’t occurred yet. Now as 2023 Spring Training is underway, it’s fantasy baseball draft season and perfect timing for a new overall list.
Before getting to our list of top baseball prospects, here are a few notes on its compilation:
23 of our staff submitted their own personal top 100 prospects rankings, leaning fantasy baseball over real-life.
Prospect eligibility is based only on number of At Bats (130 or less) or Innings Pitched (50 or less). We did not factor in service time, which usually does not have much difference between our lists and Major League Baseball eligibility. We are sticking with using only AB/IP to determine prospect eligibility as this is what many dynasty/fantasy leagues use.
The # of Lists column tells you how many of our 23 contributors included that player on their top 100 list. The Highest and Lowest columns tell you the range of rankings for that player; one note about the Lowest column: it is the lowest ranking for that player in a top 100 list. You should refer to the # of Lists column to see if the player went unranked by one or more contributors.
The lists were combined to generate an aggregated list of prospects (in this case, 199 individual players). To determine the final ranking, prospects were given points (5th column) relative to their position in each top 100 list (e.g., 1st place = 100 points and 100th place = 1 point). In the case of a tie in aggregated points, the player ranked on more lists is ranked higher. If there’s a tie in points AND players are ranked on the same number of personal Top 100 lists, then they will retain the same rank. For example, both Jack Leiter (16 lists) and Nick Gonzales (14 lists) each aggregated the same number of overall points, but Leiter is listed ahead of Gonzales because more writers ranked him. Spencer Steer and Brandon Barriera are tied in points AND were both ranked on two lists, so they retain the same tied rank at 166 and the next player is 168.
If you’re interested in seeing all of the 23 different Top 100 lists, or what rank one of the correspondents gave to a specific player, the rankings spreadsheet can be viewed here.
|Rank||Player Name||Position||Team||Total Points||Highest Ranking||Lowest Ranking||# of Lists|
|6||Elly De La Cruz||SS||CIN||2179||1||12||23|
|34||Robert Hassell III||OF||WAS||1478||14||88||23|
|139||Josue De Paula||OF||LAD||48||66||96||3|
|186||Deyvison De Los Santos||3B||ARI||7||94||94||1|
|196||Jeremy De La Rosa||OF||WAS||2||99||99||1|
Prospects1500 is your comprehensive dynasty league resource, featuring deep MLB/MiLB top prospect lists, news and rankings.
I don’t see Jordan Groshans on this list. Where would he rank? He was a top 70 last time.
He doesn’t rank on any of our 23 writers’ Top 100s, which is why he doesn’t show up on this list. For any player to be included, he has to be ranked in someone’s personal Top 100, and that just isn’t the case with Groshans based on these current rankings.
I understand, but where do you think he’d rank on either your own personal list or the group rank if you could rank 300 or more players?
Groshans is # 227 on Fantasy Alarms top 400. He did not appear on Roto Ballers top 250 list. He hit 4 HR’s and stole 3 bases last year in 120 games. Safe to say he’s outside most peoples top 200 and is okay for real baseball but not fantasy relevant.
Is it safe to say that many of those 120 games where he hit 4 HR and stole 3 bases, came after our June rankings were published? Probably. This would explain why none of our 23 writers who contributed to this new ranking had him in their Top 100.
Okay, but it begs the question, why was he ranked so highly to begin with? He didn’t have good numbers in June when the last rankings were made and he was a top 70 guy. He played well in his time with the major league club. A few months go by and suddenly a top 70 prospect is on no ones radar? In my dynasty league, I gave up a pair of first round picks to get him along with a fairly marginal prospect (worth the equivalent of a fourth) based on the fact that the P1500 consensus rankings had him as a top 70 prospect and I thought that meant something. Is Groshans really that different now from what he was in June?
The opposite situation has occurred with Emmanuel Rodriguez. Last year, going into the season he was considered a guy with potential but ranked by the Twins evaluator on this site as being a tier 4 prospect and ranked 28th in the Twins system. I dealt him away, along with Gabriel Gonalez, Adam Macko and Chris Gittens for Zach Deloach, Robert Dominguez, Sheryven Newton and Yennier Cano because the site rankings and tiers showed I should be gaining an advantage. This trade has not aged well at all and both Rodriguez’s and Gonzalez’s stock have risen substantially. In the June rankings, Rodriguez was ranked 116th overall in all of minor league baseball, a fairly meteoric rise. He had one fairly big question mark however, he had a season ending injury in late May or early June. How much would this hurt his prospect value since he didn’t play a game? I just checked this list and he……. gained value??? He is now a top 50 prospect! How does this happen? What did he do getting injury that would justify this raise in his stock?
I’m just very curious about this. How do I interpret these lists and their value when a prospects ranking appears to fluctuate so greatly from one month to the next on very little new information?
Jarrett, thanks for the comments. Here’s what I can tell you. These lists are subjective. Not one person evaluates prospects the same way as another person. We are all fans and fantasy baseball players. We are not experts and we are not scouts. This is disclosed on our site. As of last June 2022, Jordan Groshans came in at 68th on our overall list. Maybe a bit high? At that time, only 16 writers submitted their personal Top 100s. Some liked him more than others, and some didn’t include him at all. He was ranked on 14 of 16 lists, ranging from 40 (high) to 95 (low). It’s just where he landed with the total amount of aggregated points, which is how our list is generated. You as a reader and fantasy baseball player should take this ranking and info and digest it and apply your own evaluation for him (and any other player).
Regarding Emmanuel Rodriguez, I’ll say the same thing. Some writers like him more than others, but he is a consensus Top 100 prospect. Look at the data and make your own conclusions on where you think he should be. He showed up on 22 of 23 writers’ lists, so he absolutely should be here. Ranked as high as 14 by one person, and as low as 99 by another. The total points slot him into the 50th position. That’s just how our overall ranks work, and we explain that in the article. Whether you think he’s a Top 50 prospect or not, again, totally your opinion. I have him 48th on my personal list.
In the end, you can interpret these lists how you feel they should be interpreted. You have to remember, we are all doing this for the fun of it. We are all family people, have other full time jobs, time commitments and do not work on this site for any sort of income. This type of consensus ranking, which you’ve been asking for since November, is something we feel we do in a unique way, different than other sites. We’re not saying it’s better than any others. It’s just different. I hope this explanation helps.
Thank you for the response and for getting this list put together. I have no issue with the aggregate ranking based on how the prospect writers have composed their lists. It just seems like a whole lot of writers shift their evaluations based on little new information and I’m at a loss on how to evaluate these prospects independently. I consider the consensus rankings to be unique which is why I am curious on how it will turn out, but it looks like prospect analysis is like evaluating penny stocks. A player’s value can change over the course of the year, but they don’t appear to be changing nearly as much as the biases of the analysts who are covering him. Emmanuel’s increase in ranking from 116 to 50 is a case in point. It’s an incredible rise for a guy who didn’t play a single game between now and the last ranking in June due to injury.