With the release of 2022 Bowman 1st Edition, we have our checklist for the main release. Topps loaded the 2022 Bowman release with so many 1st Bowman’s (89 confirmed as of this writing) that I’m going to break this into three articles: AL base set subjects as previously discussed, NL base card subjects here, and Autograph-only subjects when the checklist for the main release comes out.
Below is an alphabetical (by team) list of every National League subject with a 1st Bowman, with a little bit of information on each and my personal risk/ceiling assessment. How I judge ceiling is based on the hobby — power first, everything else following. How I judge risk is mostly dependent on how far the player has advanced in level, but also factors in how well the player has done & projects to do.
Level listed is the player’s 2022 starting level, unless otherwise noted.
Because the list is 40+ names, for the TLDR (too long didn’t read) crowd, I’ll throw a few superlatives out, High School yearbook-style:
Most Likely to Succeed: Eddys Leonard
Best Performer: Elly De La Cruz & Jose Ramos
Most Changed: Diego Rincones
Most Athletic: Elly De La Cruz & Kahlil Watson
Most Likely to Make your Head Turn: Elly De La Cruz & James Wood
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Alvin Guzman, Arizona Diamondbacks, 20, OF, Rookie-ACL (2021)
Guzman has everything going for him but his hit tool. Even though he struck out in a third of his PA’s and hit just .208 in the Complex, he’ll likely start back there this year. He has a frame with projectable power, plus speed, and is a smooth defender, so he should at least be able to play every day and see if he can progress to being a passable hitter.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4
Luke Waddell, Atlanta Braves, 23, SS/3B, AA
An undersized infielder, Waddell was a senior sign from the 2021 Draft. He’s an excellent contact hitter and his successful debut had him moving all the way to AA. He has below-average power with no projection, but his role as a future MLB utility/bench player already looks pretty good.
Risk 4
Ceiling 3
Mahki Backstrom, Atlanta Braves, 20, 1B, Single-A
It’s easy to see the appeal in a 6’5″ player who registered a 109 MPH exit velocity in HS. But, being 2+ years removed from that, Backstrom has not advanced as a hitter and his development was hurt quite a lot by the lost year. Having a big frame with too much swing-and-miss is a trope, but it looks like that’s the case for him. He’ll give Low-A a try to begin 2022.
Risk 10
Ceiling 3
Ronnier Quintero, Chicago Cubs, 19, C, Rookie-ACL (2021)
Quintero was the top catcher from the 2019 J2 period, signing for $2.9 MM. His great arm gives him a shot to stay behind the plate. He played in the complex a bit in 2021, but as he’s still quite raw his time there was mostly instructional. It’s too early to tell how well his plus raw power will play.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6
Luis Verdugo, Chicago Cubs, 21, INF, Single-A (2021)
Verdugo is an outstanding defender anywhere in the infield. He’s worked on developing his body in an attempt to get to average power, but it hasn’t shown up yet in-game. He’s also really not showing a good feel to hit. He’ll repeat Low-A and is in danger of becoming a Role-30, but if his offensive game picks up, his defense will carry him far.
Risk 10
Ceiling 2
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds, 20, 3B/SS, High-A
Think about Oneil Cruz, but a little stronger and an inch shorter. That’s Elly De La Cruz. He hits the ball really hard with regularity, but too many are low line drives & grounders at present. Plus, there are significant approach issues in his game as well. If he makes all those adjustments though, he could be a 5-tool superstar. He’s clearly a top 2-3 player in this product at release date.
Risk 8
Ceiling 10
Justice Thompson, Cincinnati Reds, 21, OF, Single-A
A breakout performer at North Carolina in 2021, Thompson was taken in the 6th round of the 2021 Draft. He has a great blend of power & speed with a clear shot to be a CF. He’s big & physical with a little more projection to come. Very pull-happy right now and has some major quirks pre-pitch, but with a little development, he could be an average hitter. He’s no more than a sleeper in this product, but one to watch for sure.
Risk 8
Ceiling 7
Braylin Minier, Cincinnati Reds, 18, SS, Rookie-FCL (2021)
A seven figure 2019 J2 signee, Minier’s stateside debut this year was a success. He’s very far from the majors and was hyper-aggressive at the plate, but his feel to hit is solid. He has some power projection as well that should come to fruition with maturity. As a solid defender, he’s an easy choice to eventually head to Low-A this year.
Risk 8
Ceiling 5
Allan Cerda, Cincinnati Reds, 22, OF, High-A
This one is simple – Cerda in extreme FB profile power-hitter. If he makes it, it’ll be as an Adam Duvall-type. He’s got some work to do from a hit perspective to get there, but there could be a bit of hobby relevance.
Risk 8
Ceiling 5
Christian Roa, Cincinnati Reds, 23, RHP, High-A (2021)
An elbow injury wiped out a chunk of Roa’s season in 2021, but he recovered to pitch his way up to High-A. He has a good mix of average to above-average offerings, and with a little more command development, could be a back-end rotation piece. He starts 2022 injured.
Risk 6
Ceiling 4
Michel Triana, Cincinnati Reds, 22, 1B, Single-A
Triana is not a speedster and is limited to 1B defensively. He has plus raw power, but his plate approach is so bad that it hasn’t shown up in games very often. The pandemic was absolutely crippling to his development as an older 2019 signee. It’ll take an unexpected breakout for him to become relevant for the hobby.
Risk 9
Ceiling 2
Warming Bernabel, Colorado Rockies, 19, 3B, Single-A
A low-risk 19-year-old? My saying that is as aggressive as his plate approach, but it’s closer to true than not. He absolutely annihilated the Complex, hitting .432 in 80 PA’s, before moving up to Low-A and struggling a bit. But even so, his plate skills remained outstanding — Low K%, and a great SwStr% for his age. If he can take a few more walks, the sky’s the limit with his hit tool. His swing also generates a ton of loft, which should play well as his body develops.
Risk 6
Ceiling 7
Robby Martin Jr, Colorado Rockies, 22, OF, High-A
Martin had an excellent freshman campaign at Florida before the pandemic mostly wiped out his sophomore year. Then in 2021, adding more muscle made his easy raw power come to fruition in-game, but it came at the expense of hitting .264. Then coming full circle, his pro debut was more indicative of his earlier collegiate years. Any way you slice it he’s a bat-first corner OF who needs quite a bit of refinement.
Risk 8
Ceiling 5
Jose Ramos, Los Angeles Dodgers, 21, OF, Single-A
Because Ramos is a great OF defender, his development won’t be hindered as long as his bat keeps up. It definitely has so far in spades, as he had 29 XBH and hit .313 in 47 games after being promoted to Low-A. If his unorthodox swing continues to work at higher levels, his ceiling is very high.
Risk 8
Ceiling 8
Eddys Leonard, Los Angeles Dodgers, 21, IF/OF, High-A
Leonard popped up out of obscurity to slug 22 HR across both A levels last year. He projects to have average or better power — maybe 20-25 HR at peak. He’s a very good hitter and though he can be pull-happy, that’s an even better tool than his power. But his real bailiwick is his defensive versatility. He’d be an elite defender at 2B, but can also handle 3B, SS, and CF. In a few years he could be a razor-sharp utility knife.
Risk 5
Ceiling 7
Jorbit Vivas, Los Angeles Dodgers, 21, 3B, High-A
By every measure, Vivas is an excellent hitter. He just doesn’t have average power or projection for it. He also has below-average speed and range, so he’s limited to 2B or a corner OF, as he was not as good at 3B in 2021. Still, though, he’s a strong enough hitter that if he continues at his current trajectory, he’s a Luis Arraez-type. It’s a really good hobby floor.
Risk 5
Ceiling 5
Junior Sanchez, Miami Marlins, 19, SS, DNP (2021)
A $1.5 MM 2019 J2 signee, Sanchez has not played professionally at all yet due to the pandemic, then an injury. There’s still plenty of time for him to develop, but he’s all question marks.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6
Kahlil Watson, Miami Marlins, 18, SS, Single-A
I don’t need to write much about him, but to recap: One of the best prep bats in the 2021 Draft, Watson has great power from a small frame. Exactly how his hit tool develops is the question. If it goes well, he’s easily a star in the mold of Ozzie Albies.
Risk 7
Ceiling 9
Ian Lewis, Miami Marlins, 19, 2B, Single-A
I love Ian Lewis’ plus speed. He’s got quite a bit of pop in his small frame as well, and if his hyper-aggressive approach continues to work, a 20 HR ceiling isn’t out of the question. Lewis is hurt to begin 2022, but he, Kahlil Watson, and Jose Salas are going to be quite the trio at Jupiter this year and moving forward.
Risk 8
Ceiling 7
Brady Allen, Miami Marlins, 22, OF, College (2021)
He had Tommy John surgery after the Draft, so the Marlins 5th round pick has not made his pro debut. Coming from the University of South Carolina, his profile is still pretty well established. Allen has average tools across the board with speed being his best weapon. That’ll put him into CF when he makes his debut later this summer.
Risk 7
Ceiling 4
Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers, 18, OF, DSL (2021)
The top 2021 J15 for the Brewers, Chourio was not challenged in the DSL in 2021. As with many DSL and Complex players, there’s a lot of projection, but, he has 5-tool potential. At this time the ceiling of each of those tools does not seem to be extraordinary, but if one pops up and the others stay average or better, he could be a star.
Risk 9
Ceiling 8
Hendry Mendez, Milwaukee Brewers, 18, OF, Single-A
Limited data, but the 55 hit tool that’s mostly put on him by scouts might be very light. Mendez’s plate discipline remained elite even after being promoted to the ACL. His defense & power look fringy right now, though at 6’2” and a very high GB% at present, more game power could come. He starts the season as an 18-year-old in Single-A with the potential to move up. That always bodes well.
Risk 7
Ceiling 7
Felix Valerio, Milwaukee Brewers, 21, 2B, AA
His hit tool already seems strong enough that it’ll eventually play in the majors. If it continues to develop, he’ll be an above-average MLB hitter. There’s a lot of ‘however’ here though – the extent of the power and speed he showed is likely a mirage, he’s locked into 2B, and at 5’7″, lacks projection. His ceiling is something like .300 BA/12 HR/12 SB, but I’m making this call after an age-20 season at both A levels, so there’s a lot of room for me to be wrong.
Risk 4
Ceiling 6
Jheremy Vargas, Milwaukee Brewers, 18, SS/3B, Single-A
A mid-six-figure bonus 2021 J15 signee, the book on Vargas was excellent on-base skills, average or better defense, and below-average power projection. He was aggressively assigned to the Complex in 2021, and showed exactly those skills. That said, his power is poor enough that he doesn’t seem like he’ll have more than modest hobby interest. The Brewers have again aggressively assigned him to begin 2022, to Single-A.
Risk 8
Ceiling 5
Branlyn Jaraba, Milwaukee Brewers, 20, 3B, Rookie-ACL (2021)
Jaraba is much too free of a swinger at present, across his DSL in 2019 and Complex last year, it’s a SwStr% over 40%. He makes too little contact to project even a below-average hit tool, even if there is some power present.
Risk 10
Ceiling 1
Robert Dominguez, New York Mets, 20, RHP, Rookie-FCL (2021)
Dominguez was a completely unheralded 2019 signee, but his development has come a long way since then, even if most of it hasn’t been in games. He has a fastball/slider combo that projects to be above-average now, although he has major command issues. Unfortunately, Dominguez had (undisclosed) arm surgery in early March that’s sure to knock him out for at least a portion of 2022.
Risk 10
Ceiling 3-5
Yhoswar Garcia, Philadelphia Phillies, 20, OF, Single-A
Garcia was 18 when he signed in 2019 for a $2.5MM bonus, and that bonus number is our biggest factor to weigh, because he hasn’t seen the field much. In 2021 he only recorded 70 PAs due to injury. He did steal 11 bases in that time, showing that he’s got great speed. The rest of his offensive package is a big question mark in-game.
Risk 9
Ceiling 4-6
Logan Cerny, Philadelphia Phillies (now Houston), 22, OF, Single-A
A 2021 5th-round pick definitely has plenty of power & speed. However, handling professional-level pitching will take some adjustments, as he didn’t see much of it at Troy and he got away with a poor approach. If he’s able to make those adjustments, he’ll be an everyday CF.
Risk 8
Ceiling 5
Simon Muzziotti, Philadelphia Phillies, 23, OF, MLB
Muzzioti’s professional career dates all the way back to 2016, so even though he had visa issues that mostly kept him off the field in 2021, there’s a good profile on the books. He has almost no power to speak of. There is a significant hit tool and plenty of speed, so becoming an MLB backup looks very much realistic, with Mickey Moniak’s injury, that starts now. His hobby interest should be pretty negligible.
Risk 2
Ceiling 3
Maikol Escotto, Pittsburgh Pirates, 19, SS, High-A
Escotto is an intriguing but frustrating prospect. He has an approach that sees a lot of swing-and miss, yet lack of aggression. His .234 BA is a result of having a very poor second half of the season, in which he hit 0 of his 7 HR. If he gets to a fringe-average hit tool, he’s a very interesting prospect because he can stay up the middle defensively and has plenty of projectable power. I’m going to be critical of the Pirates’ handling of the next few players, but they did well in challenging Escotto with an initial assignment of High-A to begin 2022.
Risk 8
Ceiling 6
Dariel Lopez, Pittsburgh Pirates, 20, 3B/SS, High-A
Performance thus far indicates Lopez is a really solid, under-the-radar prospect. The best case scenario is that Lopez stays athletic enough for 3B and continues to tap into his plus raw power and show flashes of an above-average hit tool. There’s quite a lot to like in that, but his body could also easily get too big for 3B, which will really put pressure on his bat as a 1B. It’s an above-average MLB-regular ceiling, but his floor is lower than his performance thus far would indicate.
Risk 8
Ceiling 6
Rodolfo Nolasco, Pittsburgh Pirates, 20, OF, Single-A
The Complex wasn’t a challenge for Nolasco in 2021, as his plus raw power and feel to hit were on full display. His .269 ISO led the FCL. It was frustrating that Nolasco wasn’t promoted to Low-A (he was already 19) at some point last year, but he’s there for the start of 2022 where he’ll look to prove that superior physicality wasn’t the only reason for his success. He won’t be expensive to start, but he could be a big hobby riser if he continues with what he did at the Complex.
Risk 8
Ceiling 6
Jack Suwinski, Pittsburgh Pirates, 23, OF, AA
Coming over as a piece of the Adam Frazier trade, Suwinski had a solid year at AA, featuring 19 HR and a .383 OBP. He hits a lot of balls in the air, which is a good thing because he’s a well below-average runner. He’s not one of the best defensive outfielders you’ll see, so he really looks like a future DH as a strong-side platoon. Since the power upside is real and he’s on the 40-man, at least a modicum of hobby interest should be expected.
Risk 4
Ceiling 4
Matt Fraizer, Pittsburgh Pirates, 24, OF, AA
Drafted as an advanced hitter out of Arizona in the 2019 Draft, Fraizer had no business in High-A in 2021, but there he was with 350 plate appearances at that level. The .979 OPS he put up there is fairly meaningless. When he finally moved to AA he still showed that he’ll likely be a nice corner OF piece with some power and excellent feel to hit. Since he’s already 24 and not knocking on the door, the hobby will likely not be kind to him.
Risk 4
Ceiling 4
Euribiel Angeles, San Diego Padres (now Oakland), 19, 3B/SS, High-A
Angeles doesn’t have much raw power, projection, or a swing that’s geared for power. However, he is very young and already reached High-A. and there’s room for his hit tool to be a plus asset with maturity. He hasn’t moved to 2B yet but it seems like a home where he would be at least average defensively. Being a big-league regular is squarely in his range of outcomes.
Risk 5
Ceiling 4
Brandon Valenzuela, San Diego Padres, 21, C/1B, High-A
He reached High-A at age 20 and had a .393 OBP this year. But, there’s not a lot of other tools that stand out. He’s a below-average defender at catcher, with little speed and average-at-best power projection. He’s going to have to hit even better than he has to make it as a MLB backup.
Risk 6
Ceiling 3
James Wood, San Diego Padres, 19, OF, Single-A
At 6’7″, Wood easily has double-plus raw power, and showed it off in his great debut. The 2021 2nd Round pick also has a cannon for an arm that should easily keep him in RF. The only question is whether the swing-and-miss concerns that come from such a large frame will become more of an issue as he advances. If he keeps his K% around 30, he’s going to be a really good power bat. One of the top players in this product for sure.
Risk 9
Ceiling 9
Zayed Salinas, San Diego Padres, 19, OF, Rookie-ACL (2021)
Salinas was signed as a 2-way player in 2019, but he’s been moved to OF-only. He only appeared in a few games in the Complex in 2021 (unclear why), but he should be ready for a full season this year, where he’ll look to show off his great athleticism.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6
Victor Lizarraga, San Diego Padres, 18, RHP, Single-A
Lizarraga was aggressively assigned to the Complex after signing for $1 MM in March 2021 and fared better than expected for a 17-year-old. He is a lot of projection right now, but he should end up with the frame, fastball velocity, and pitch mix to remain a starter. Surprisingly, he was assigned to Single-A to begin 2022, so keep a lookout.
Risk 9
Ceiling 4-6
Aeverson Arteaga, San Francisco Giants, 19, SS, Single-A
Arteaga was an early-season surprise at the Complex in 2021, showing great power & feel to hit. It dropped off significantly as the season progressed, but it’s fair to anticipate a recovery of some magnitude. With solid defensive skills already present, the Giants are sure to give him the opportunity every day at Single-A. Nobody should be calling him a ‘stud prospect’ for the hobby yet, but he’s one to watch.
Risk 7
Ceiling 7
Anthony Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants, 19, 3B, Rookie-ACL
Because of Aeverson Arteaga, Rodriguez found himself as a full-time 3B at the Complex in 2021. He doesn’t have the power for the position, and his swing-and-miss tendencies are pretty bad at present. He really seems like a player who needs an unexpected breakout to have any relevance.
Risk 9
Ceiling 2
Adrian Sugastey, San Francisco Giants, 19, C, Single-A
Based on his profile as a bat-first catcher with major swing-and miss concerns entering 2021, Sugasty made really solid progress as a hitter. He posted a great .396 wOBA at the Complex and only had a 16% K rate. His power hasn’t shown up yet in-game, but there’s projection for a modest amount of it. He’ll have to work really hard to stay at catcher.
Risk 9
Ceiling 4
Ricardo Genoves, San Francisco Giants, 22, C, AAA
Pushed to AAA late in the season, Genoves is a great ancillary reason the Giants won’t be worried about catching depth in the coming years. He’s got a little development to go, but he looks like a plus defender behind the plate. His overall offensive profile is lacking, but his feel to hit is such that it’s easy to see him as an MLB-quality backup catcher.
Risk 5
Ceiling 3
Diego Rincones, San Francisco Giants, 22, OF, AA
Rincones was a pleasant surprise. He’s always shown a good feel to hit, but his power really showed up last year for the first time. His OPS improved by .761 in 2019 to .891 in 2021. That’ll play! He’s more suited to being a DH than a corner OF, so he’s still going to have to continue hitting, but it’s a big up arrow.
Risk 6
Ceiling 6
Diego Velasquez, San Francisco Giants, 18, SS, Rookie-ACL (2021)
Velasquez was the Giants’ top 2021 J15 signee, and went straight to the Complex. There was a lot of struggle, but on the positive side he didn’t show swing-and-miss concern. There’s a lot of room to add strength to his frame. When he does that we’ll see how his projection of above-average tools across the board looks. Right now it’s a big question mark.
Risk 10
Ceiling 5
Joshua Baez, St. Louis Cardinals, 19, OF, Rookie-FCL (2021)
Baez has fantastic raw power. There’s no doubt about that. The swing-and-miss concerns noted in his scouting reports fully showed up in his debut, in which he only hit .158. It’s also a red flag that his body is already close to maxed out.
Risk 10
Ceiling 7
Roismar Quintana, Washington Nationals, 19, OF, Rookie-FCL (2021)
There’s not much info here. He was a 2019 J2 $800K bonus guy who’s carrying tool was supposedly power. Played a few games in 2021 in the Complex.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6
Andry Lara, Washington Nationals, 19, RHP, Single-A
Signed as a 2019 J2 for 1.25 MM, Lara jumped right into stateside ball in 2021 and did really well, making it to Low-A at 18. As expected for international pitchers of his age, his command and control have a long way to go, as does his third pitch. Everything else with him is great though. As he matures his fastball should be well into the mid-90’s, his slider is already above average, and he has a great frame to grow into pitchability. International pitchers never do well in the hobby while they’re at lower levels, which makes them great sleepers.
Risk 8
Ceiling 6
Darren Baker, Washington Nationals, 23, 2B, High-A
Dusty’s son, Baker was a 2021 10th round senior sign with no power. I mean, none. He hit 1 HR in 4 years at Cal. He does have speed and a good feel to hit though, so he does have an opportunity to advance to the high minors to see if he can eke out some utility to his profile with the ceiling of a MLB backup. He’s still collectible based on his lineage though.
Risk 6
Ceiling 2
Max Arterburn lives in the Milwaukee suburbs. He loves coaching baseball, karaoke, film, and spending time with his wife & 3 boys. He loves the Hobby & uses it as an avenue to obsessively follow prospects. He also loves critiquing card design & fancies 1998 UD3 as his favorite childhood set. He is not an Instagram model.
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Max Arterburnhttps://www.prospects1500.com/author/marterburn1500/
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Max Arterburnhttps://www.prospects1500.com/author/marterburn1500/
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Max Arterburnhttps://www.prospects1500.com/author/marterburn1500/
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Max Arterburnhttps://www.prospects1500.com/author/marterburn1500/
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