With the recent release of 2022 Bowman 1st Edition, we have our checklist for the main release! Topps loaded 2022 Bowman with so many 1st Bowmans (89 confirmed as of this writing) that I’m going to break this into three articles: AL base set subjects here, NL base card subjects next, and Autograph-only subjects when the checklist for the main release comes out. 2022 Bowman’s release date has just been pushed back a week. Originally scheduled for an April 27th release, Topps announced we should now see Bowman on May 4th.
Below is an alphabetical (by team) list of every American League subject with a 1st Bowman, with a little bit of information on each and my personal risk/ceiling assessment. How I judge ceiling is based on the hobby – power first, everything else following. How I judge risk is mostly dependent on how far the player has advanced in level but also factors in how well the player has done and projects to do.
Level listed is the player’s 2022 starting level, unless otherwise noted.
Because the list is 40+ names, for the TLDR (too long didn’t read) crowd, I’ll throw a few superlatives out, High School yearbook-style:
Most Likely to Succeed: George Valera
Best Performer: Dustin Harris
Most Changed: Samad Taylor & Oswaldo Cabrera
Most Athletic: Jonatan Clase
Most Likely to Make your Head Turn: Trey Sweeney & Jhonkensy Noel
Darell Hernaiz, Baltimore Orioles , 20, SS, Single-A
A former 5th round pick in 2019, Hernaiz is still a raw prospect, but he’s improved steadily since being drafted. His frame is such that there could be average or better power to come, and although his approach needs refinement (sub-7 BB%, 35% IFFB), there’s very good bat-to-ball skills.
Risk 9
Ceiling 4
Luis Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles , 19, OF, Rookie-FCL (2021)
Big, strong lefty corner OF who was a 2019 J2 signing. His power hasn’t shown up much in-game yet, and he’s extremely raw overall as a hitter. He’ll head back to the Complex this year for more refinement.
Risk 10
Ceiling 3
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox, 21, OF/IF, High-A
Rafaela has a good feel to hit, posting a very good 25% LD and sub 20% K. He has serviceable power and speed as well. He doesn’t have star potential, but I can see him becoming a solid utility player if everything breaks right.
Risk 7
Ceiling 4
Niko Kavadas, Boston Red Sox, 23, 1B, Single-A
A 1B-only, power-only senior sign out of Notre Dame in the 11th round of the 2021 Draft, Kavadas has a narrow path to success because of his defensive limitations. Still, it’ll be fun to watch & see how the power plays. He’s got a good eye at the plate that he uses find the right pitch to mash, or take walks — he’s not up there looking for singles.
Risk 8
Ceiling 4
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox, 22, RHP, AA
Bello is nearly big-league ready. He posted excellent K numbers across High-A and AA in a season that saw him pitch in the Futures Game. He has three pitches that are at least above average – so remaining a starter long-term is an expectation. His command is just OK right now, and that’ll be what limits his ceiling.
Risk 2
Ceiling 6
Eduardo Lopez, Boston Red Sox, 19, OF, Single-A (2021)
Lopez signed for over $1 MM in 2018, but he doesn’t look like he has any ceiling. It’s more likely he’s a role minor-leaguer, but he has the defensive skills to stay in the organization for several more years and hope some development happens.
Risk 10
Ceiling 2
Misael Gonzalez, Chicago White Sox, 20, OF, Single-A
A 12th round pick in the 2019 Draft, Gonzalez remains a project. He hit .311 at his initial Complex League assignment in 2021, which earned him a promotion to Single-A. It didn’t go so well in Kannapolis, but his strong defense & burgeoning power will keep him as a project worth developing.
Risk 10
Ceiling 5
Benyamin Bailey, Chicago White Sox, 20, OF, Single-A
Bailey was excellent in 2019 in the DSL, but he looked completely lost after an aggressive assignment to Single-A then a demotion to the Complex. With a powerful 6’4″ frame, he still has some intrigue as a prospect, but he needs to start hitting & showing more power this year in his second try at Single-A.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4
Elijah Tatis, Chicago White Sox, 20, SS, Rookie-ACL (2021)
Bloodlines aside, Tatis looks completely irrelevant. He had a 47% K last year, with only 3 XBH in over 100 PA. There’s always a chance for a 20 YO to have an unexpected breakout, but it does not look promising.
Risk 10
Ceiling 2
Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox, 20, SS, Single-A
If the White Sox hype train does their thing, Colson should be a top 5 player in this release. I think he has potential plus tools across the board, with a long runway for a few to end up better than that. If everything breaks right, this is a future All-Star SS.
Risk 8
Ceiling 9
Lenyn Sosa, Chicago White Sox, 22, SS, AA
Sosa’s feel to hit is good enough to reach the majors, but that’s really his best attribute. He doesn’t get on base, and his power is fringy at best. Although he’s played almost exclusively at SS, it seems like his future is at 2B with some utility appeal. Low ceiling players like this don’t usually get much hobby love.
Risk 5
Ceiling 3
Norge Vera, Chicago White Sox, 21, RHP, DSL (2021)
After singing in early 2021 for $1.5 million, he was assigned to the DSL to get his feet wet, where he did exactly what you’d expect for a 21-year-old to do at the level. Vera has a three pitch mix & seems like he knows how to attack hitters with them. There’s nothing to dislike in his profile — his fastball was up to 96, and at 6’3″ has an ideal frame to be an SP — he simply has not pitched much.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6
Jhonkensy Noel, Cleveland Guardians, 20, 3B/1B, High-A
There is some swing & miss concern and a low BB%, but does that really matter when you’re hitting .340 & slugging .615? Absolutely not. That said, it won’t stay that way, and how he adjusts when he struggles will determine whether his profile is closer to Franmil Reyes, or Rafael Devers. Either way, it’s a great power profile. Oh, and he’s only 20 years old for the first half of 2022, where he’s starting at High-A.
Risk 6
Ceiling 9
Jose Pastrano, Cleveland Guardians, 19, IF, Rookie-ACL (2021)
Pastrano played at the Complex this year and though he showed some solid plate skills, the results weren’t great. He does not project for any power, so his potential plus defense will have to carry him developmentally.
Risk 10
Ceiling 2
George Valera, Cleveland Guardians, 21, OF, AA
Here he is. Ever since Valera failed to come to terms for autographs with Topps back in 2020 so we’ve been waiting for this. he’s easily average or better across the board, and his power is the easiest of those tools with more projection to come. Already having hit AA at age 20, he fits the mold of a young potential superstar with proximity to the majors.
Risk 3
Ceiling 10
Fran Alduey, Cleveland Guardians, 18, SS, DSL (2021)
Alduey is extremely raw & needs more physical development before we can see exactly how much juice is in his 5’7″ frame offensively. But even at present, it looks like there is some, which is quite positive for a 17 YO.
Risk 10
Ceiling 6
Junior Sanquintin, Cleveland Guardians, 20, 1B/3B, Single-A
Sanquintin posted one of the best ISO’s in the ACL, which indicates his above-average raw power is already playing in-game. The rest of his profile, offensively & defensively, is a work in progress. He’ll start 2022 at Single-A, where he’ll look to get more innings as a 1B & refine his approach at the plate. For the hobby, he’s a solid bet as a deep sleeper.
Risk 9
Ceiling 5
Roberto Campos, Detroit Tigers, 18, OF, Single-A
Campos’ excellent raw power has already shown up in-game — and it’s apparent that collectors have realized that — he’s of the 10 highest price players in the set. Barely 18 at the Complex in 2021, Campos’ hit tool has a long way to go but there’s a better feel for it than many at his age. The Tigers are challenging him with an assignment to Single-A to start 2022.
Risk 9
Ceiling 8
Dauri Lorenzo, Houston Astros, 19, IF, Rookie-ACL (2021)
The Astros’ biggest signee from the 2019 J2 class, Lorenzo is a defense-first middle infielder. His best offensive tool is his hit, but its above-average projection hasn’t shown up at all yet. He has a frame & swing that could get to moderate power, but he’s very raw and not showing that at present.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4
Will Wagner, Houston Astros, 23, IF, High-A
The son of the former Astros All-Star Billy, Wagner was an 18-Round senior sign out of Liberty. He doesn’t have much ceiling, but he’s good defensively and will be at least a serviceable role player for several years in the organization. After his excellent pro debut, it’s even possible he develops into an MLB bench bat.
Risk 8
Ceiling 3
Peyton Wilson, Kansas City Royals, 22, 2B, High-A
Coming from an elite college program and a family of elite athletes, there’s a lot to like about Wilson’s makeup. The 66th overall pick in 2021, he’s a solid defender up the middle. He has a good feel to hit with a little bit of pop & above-average speed.
Risk 8
Ceiling 4
Luca Tresh, Kansas City Royals, 22, C, High-A
Tresh’s talent is non-indicative of the 17th round pick that he was — KC signed him for $420K, exhausting their savings from earlier underslot deals. Because he was behind Patrick Bailey at NC State, Tresh only caught for one season. As expected, he is raw defensively but has a great arm. He will need to improve his hitting quite a bit as well in order to get to his plus raw power. Raw college players don’t usually do great in the hobby, and being a catcher, even more so. But there is some ceiling to be had here.
Risk 8
Ceiling 4
Edgar Quero, Los Angeles Angels, 18, C, Single-A
After showing a great feel to hit at the Complex, Quero was moved to Single-A, where as an 18-year-old playing the toughest position on the diamond, he struggled. There’s not much projection offensively in the power department, but he’s so far away that he could end up average or better. He’ll be an interesting watch as he focuses on developing his receiving skills in the coming years.
Risk 8
Ceiling 3
Denzer Guzman, Los Angeles Angels, 18, SS, DSL (2021)
One needs to look deeper than a quick glance at what he did in the DSL (.213 BA in 164 PA) to see the potential in Guzman. The Angels’ top 2021 J15 signee, Guzman was pegged with above-average skills across the board, with a real shot to stay at SS. Quality of contact was an issue (32% IFFB, 17% LD), but a low K% and a high BB% ameliorate that. For me. that equates to no downgrade from when he signed, based on performance.
Risk 10
Ceiling 6-8
Carlos Aguiar, Minnesota Twins, 20, OF, Rookie-FCL (2021)
Aguiar has great raw power. However, he has a massive uppercut swing that led to a 45% SwStr and a 37.4% K. It’s just not going to play well unless he makes major adjustments. He’ll play 2022 as a corner OF, likely repeating complex ball.
Risk 10
Ceiling 3
Oswaldo Cabrera, New York Yankees, 23, IF, AAA
Cabrera broke out with 29 HR in 2021, mostly in AA. It’s not a sign of projectability with him, but it’s a loud statement that he does indeed have enough power to be an offense-first utility player in the majors. If he continues to hit for enough average at AAA, that role will be his if the opportunity arises this year.
Risk 2
Ceiling 5
Fidel Montero, New York Yankees, 18, OF, DSL (2021)
His performance in the DSL was not good, but Montero is an elite athlete with fantastic raw power. Whether his hit tool ever develops enough remains to be seen, but flyers could be taken on worse prospects.
Risk 10
Ceiling 5
Trey Sweeney, New York Yankees, 21, SS, High-A
Sweeney’s average exit velocity at Eastern Illinois was over 100 MPH — that easily makes his raw power plus. Combine that with a decent feel to hit and a puncher’s chance of staying at SS, and the Yankees have a super-high-ceiling chase in this product.
Risk 6
Ceiling 10
Max Muncy, Oakland Athletics, 19, SS, Single-A
The A’s 1st round pick in 2021, he’s a lot of projection. There could be a 5-tool talent here, and he has the frame for average or better power in the future. He has some approach issues at present, but he’s so far away that it’s easy to say it’ll be refined in time.
Risk 9
Ceiling 7
Jonatan Clase, Seattle Mariners, 19, OF, Single-A
Speed, speed, speed. Clase’s game starts there, and before an injury ended his Complex season after 57 PA’s, it was evident that there he had developed a little bit of power & feel to hit as well. However at 5’8″”, there is a cap to what he can be. He’ll be a fun watch as he moves to Single-A to start 2022.
Risk 9
Ceiling 6
Victor Labrada, Seattle Mariners, 22, OF, High-A
Labrada was signed out of Cuba in 2019 for 350k and showed solid progress this year. He’s got a ways to go developmentally, but if he hits enough, his speed & defense will make him an asset in the majors. There’s a little bit of power here too, but it’s below average and does not project to be better than that.
Risk 7
Ceiling 4
Curtis Mead, Tampa Bay Rays, 21, 3B/1B, AA
The Aussie launched himself from Single-A all the way to a stint in the AFL in 2021, and showed no sign of slowing down. He’s already average across the board right now and has plenty of projection remaining. He’s definitely a player to watch at he continues his development in AA this year.
Risk 5
Ceiling 8
Alejandro Pie, Tampa Bay Rays, 20, 3B, Rookie-FCL (2021)
Pie was a big-bonus 2018 J2, but it just hasn’t worked out so far. He has a large, projectable frame, but only generated 4 XBH in n 2021. A whopping 98 of his 134 PA’s ended in ground balls or strikeouts. We’ve seen late bloomers before, but it’s safe to ignore Pie at this time.
Risk 10
Ceiling 2
Jose Rodriguez, Texas Rangers, 20, OF/1B, Single-A
Not nearly as good of a prospect as his White Sox namesake, this Venezuelan Jose only got 50 PA’s in Single-A before going down for the season with an injury. Coupled with his DSL numbers from 2019, Rodriguez looks like hit-tool-centric prospect with a ways to go with his approach. Power isn’t present yet, and he looks defensively limited as well.
Risk 10
Ceiling 2
Dustin Harris, Texas Rangers, 22, 1B, AA
Every year a mid-round college bat has a superlative breakthrough the year after they’re drafted. Harris fit that bill for the 2019 class. His power (20 HR) showed up as expected. But what’s more impressive was his feel to hit — he had an excellent SwStr%, a low K%, and a high LD%. Some of the damage was done in Single-A where he was a little old for the level, but even after moving up he slashed an eye-popping .372/.425/.648. Oh, and he also stole 25 bases!
Risk 4
Ceiling 9
Estiven Machado, Toronto Blue Jays, 19, 2B, Rookie-FCL (2021)
A high 6-figure 2019 J2 signee, Machado only has 1 career PA to his credit, but he’s supposedly a plus defender with a good feel to hit & some projectable power.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6
Samad Taylor, Toronto Blue Jays, 23, OF, AAA
Taylor really showed out in a prove-it year in 2021, putting himself on the map as a potential utility bat. HIs swing-and miss-tendencies persisted, but he successfully converted his gap power to HR power from 2019-2021. There’s enough to like here to call him a decent sleeper in this product, but don’t be surprised if he ends up more similar to Mallex Smith than Teoscar Hernandez.
Risk 5
Ceiling 5
Martin Gimenez, Toronto Blue Jays, 18, 3B, DSL (2021)
He was the Blue Jays’ 2nd-biggest bonus for the 2021 J15, but his performance in the DSL was rough. A 43% SwStr led to a 31% K, and he only had 4 XBH in 160 PA’s. His carrying tool was supposedly power. If that remains the case, the rest of his batted ball profile indicates that maybe he just hasn’t grown into it yet. Let’s at least stay a bit positive on the 18-year-old.
Risk 10
Ceiling 4-6
Max Arterburn lives in the Milwaukee suburbs. He loves coaching baseball, karaoke, film, and spending time with his wife & 3 boys. He loves the Hobby & uses it as an avenue to obsessively follow prospects. He also loves critiquing card design & fancies 1998 UD3 as his favorite childhood set. He is not an Instagram model.
-
Max Arterburnhttps://www.prospects1500.com/author/marterburn1500/
-
Max Arterburnhttps://www.prospects1500.com/author/marterburn1500/
-
Max Arterburnhttps://www.prospects1500.com/author/marterburn1500/
-
Max Arterburnhttps://www.prospects1500.com/author/marterburn1500/
Leave a Reply