San Diego Padres Top 50 Prospects (2024)

2024-P1500-SD — Top 50 graphic design by Michael Packard, @CollectingPack on Twitter.

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It is safe to say Juan Soto has made quite an impact on the Padres minor league system. In 2022, the system took a big hit while acquiring Soto. Imagine how different things would look with MacKenzie Gore in the rotation, CJ Abrams in the lineup, and James Wood at the top of this list. Fast forward sixteen short months later and the Padres shipped Soto to the Bronx along with Trent Grisham. That trade brought over our number four and eleven ranked prospects, but you have to wonder if A.J. Preller would like a do-over.

There is no way around it, this system is not very deep. With only eleven players in our top 3 tiers, there is definitely work to be done rebuilding this system. All that aside, there is still talent at the top of this system. Now that the Padres are in a bit of a rebuild, some of the names on this list might get their shot sooner rather than later.

Six Prospects1500 writers contributed to this column and rankings including Scott Greene (@Scotty_Ballgame), Tony Bps (@tonybps1), Greg Bracken (@gregbracken07), Adam Greene (@aj_greene1015), Clint Fasse (@ProspectLarceny), and Jeremy Mahy (@JMahyfam). The writer’s Twitter handle follows each player write-up or paragraph.

Prospects1500 Tiers:
Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years
Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor
Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor
Tier 4: Players who have the potential to make the majors; possible sleeper candidates for sustained MLB success
Tier 5: Players of interest, worth keeping an eye on, who may make (or have made) the majors but provide minimal impact

Levels listed for each player are the highest levels player reached in 2023
*Yuki Matsui, LHP and Woo-Suk Go, RHP, recently signed with the Padres, just prior to publishing this column. If they had been included in these rankings, Matsui would slot in at the end of Tier 3, and Go would slot into Tier 5, in the 24-26 range.

Tier 1

1. Ethan Salas, C, 17, Double-A
Saying Salas is on the fast track would be an understatement. In his first full professional season he jumped all the way to Double-A, at only 17 years old. That is just crazy. Will the Padres keep up this insane pace? They clearly see something in this kid, and they have proven that they are not afraid to push a prospect that they believe in. He is in the top-10 overall conversation right now and his dynasty league stock might never be higher than it is right now. (@JMahyfam)

Tier 2

2. Jackson Merrill, SS, 20, Double-A
Merrill is borderline Tier 1 for me. Following a very solid 2022 in Rookie ball, Single-A and the Arizona Fall League, the 20-year-old shortstop continued his strong play across High-A and Double-A in 2023. The Padres’ 1st rounder out of Severna Park High School (Maryland) could be in line for an MLB roster spot in 2025 with success in AA/AAA this coming season. Jackson’s numbers were very similar in Fort Wayne and San Antonio, slashing .277/.326/.444/.770, with 207 total bases, including 15 HR, 64 RBI and 15 SB. (@Scotty_Ballgame)

3. Robby Snelling, LHP, 20, Double-A
As a former two-sport athlete and Arizona commit for both baseball and football (turned LSU commit after a coaching change), there’s no question about Snelling’s athleticism. Progressing through three levels of the Padres system and ending 2023 with a 1.82 ERA, he all but solidified himself as their top pitching prospect. An aggressive pitcher that doesn’t shy away from going straight at batters led to him striking out 118 in his first season, but also caused him to give up more hits than he should with his arsenal. Lowering the H/9 but retaining the same aggressiveness on the mound will carry Snelling up to the majors where he could anchor the Padres rotation. (@aj_greene1015)

4. Drew Thorpe, RHP, 23, Double-A
Arguably the main piece in the Juan Soto trade with the New York Yankees, Thorpe comes over with high expectations for the Padres in 2024. The Yankees affiliate leader in strikeouts last season (182) will be looking to expand on his successful pro debut season. He offers a good fastball and slider, but his changeup is where he excels and has one of the best across all the minor leagues. Thorpe isn’t necessarily prone to giving up home runs or walks, but increasing his 4.79 K/BB ratio will be a focus for San Diego’s newest pitching prospect. (@aj_greene1015)

5. Dylan Lesko, RHP, 20, High-A
Lesko is my favorite pitcher in this system. Snelling is closer to the big leagues and has a safer floor, but Lesko has the ceiling of a number two starter. He spent 2023 rehabbing from TJ surgery so patience will be needed with him. Prior to surgery he featured a dynamic three pitch mix with a change-up that made hitters look foolish. It’s nasty. If his control/command get back to pre-surgery levels, his stock will go through the roof in 2024. (@JMahyfam)

Tier 3

6. Samuel Zavala, OF, 19, High-A
Much like Salas, the Padres look like they are going to push Zavala up the ladder rather quickly. One of
the youngest players in Single-A last year, Zavala hit 14 home runs and stole 20 bases in 101 games,
slashing .267/.420/.451 with a 140 wRC+. A two-week promotion to High-A did not go as well, but that
can be ignored for now as he was facing players 3-4 years older than him. He is an average centerfielder
currently, but some scouts believe he is destined for right field as he matures. Such a move could really
put pressure on his bat to perform. (@JMahyfam)

7. Jairo Iriarte, RHP, 22, Double-A
Iriarte is another pitcher in this system that is an adjustment away from seeing his stock skyrocket. Across two levels in 2023 (High-A and Double-A) he struck out 128 hitters in only 90.1 innings. He features a mid-90’s fastball, a hard breaking slider that can be devastating, and an above average change-up with good fade. The next step will be in refining the command of his arsenal as he walked almost five per nine in 2023. Whether he ends up a mid-rotation starter or in the bullpen will hinge on him making that adjustment. (@JMahyfam)

8. Jakob Marsee, OF, 22, Double-A
Marsee broke out big time this past October/November in the Arizona Fall League, garnering the league’s MVP honors. In 24 games his performance seemed pure video game numbers. 65 total bases among his 36 hits, including 12 2B, 5 HR, 20 RBI and 16 SB, with a slash of .391/.509/.707/1.215. During the ’23 season in Fort Wayne/San Antonio, there were signs of big things coming, as he posted 125 hits in 129 games, with 16 homers and 46 bags. It was the most power he’d ever tapped into, including his college years at Central Michigan and his first season in pro ball following his 6th round selection in the 2022 MLB Draft. (@Scotty_Ballgame)

9. Graham Pauley, 3B, 23, Double-A
Don’t ask me why, but Pauley reminds me a little like Yankees prospect Aaron Palensky, and that’s a compliment in my book. He’s an outfielder with a nice approach at the plate, but two years younger than Palensky. I got to see Pauley play in the AFL desert this fall, and even though he struggled to get on base, still put up 5 HR and 20 RBI. If you’re not sold on his 2023 stat line across three levels (.308 AVG, .931 OPS, 259 TB, 23 HR, 94 RBI, 22 SB in A/A+/AA), don’t be surprised when he puts his name in potential Top 100 prospect conversation a year from now. (@Scotty_Ballgame)

10. Dillon Head, OF, 19, High-A
The Padres selected the 19-year-old Head with the 25th pick in last year’s draft and it is not hard to see why. The lefthanded hitting centerfielder is a plus-plus athlete with top of the order speed. He has good bat speed and could grow into more power as he matures. He will need time to develop, but a ceiling of 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases is within reach. Not too bad for a guy that is going in the third round of FYP drafts. (@JMahyfam)

11. Randy Vásquez, RHP, 24, MLB
Vásquez was called up to make five starts for the Yankees and appeared in eleven total games, but was ultimately included in the Juan Soto trade along with Thorpe. His curveball has fooled batters since signing in 2018 with impressive horizontal and vertical movement, averaging 6.8 more inches of break than an average curveball. After already being added to the Padres 40-man, Vásquez likely spends more time in the majors in 2024. (@aj_greene1015)

Tier 4

12. Nathan Martorella, 1B, 22, Double-A
13. Adam Mazur, RHP, 22, Double-A
14. Homer Bush Jr., OF, 22, Double-A
15. Eguy Rosario, 3B, 24, MLB
16. Victor Lizarraga, RHP, 20, High-A
17. Brandon Valenzuela, C, 23, Double-A

Martorella has some pop in his bat and gets on base but strikeout concerns will limit his potential. Mazur has the stuff to be an innings-eater starter in the future. Bush is a 2nd generation ballplayer with good speed and plays a great defensive outfield. His bat is a work in progress which may limit him to a 4th outfielder type of role. Rosario is a utility type player who has seen a little time in the majors. Lizarraga is one to keep an eye on in this tier as a future starting pitcher if he can work on his command as he matures. Valenzuela could carve out a role as a backup/low-end catcher in dynasty leagues if his offense catches up to his solid defense. (@tonybps1)

Tier 5

18. Ryan Bergert, RHP, 23, Double-A
19. Robert Perez Jr., OF/1B, 23, Triple-A
20. Korry Howell, OF, 25, Double-A
21. Daniel Montesino, OF/1B, 19, Rookie (ACL)
22. Lamar King Jr., C, 20, Rookie (ACL)
23. Rosman Verdugo, SS, 18, Single-A
24. Marcos Castañon, 3B/2B, 24, Double-A
25. Tirso Ornelas, OF, 23, Triple-A
26. Blake Dickerson, LHP, 18, High school
27. Garrett Hawkins, RHP, 23, High-A
28. Isaiah Lowe, RHP, 20, Single-A
29. J.D. Gonzalez, C, 18, High School (Puerto Rico)
30. Sean Reynolds, RHP, 25, Triple-A
31. Alek Jacob, RHP, 25, MLB
32. Nerwilian Cedeño, 2B/SS, 21, High-A
33. Joshua Mears, OF, 22, Double-A
34. Jagger Haynes, LHP, 21, Single-A
35. Yendry Rojas, SS/2B, 18, Rookie (ACL)
36. Austin Krob, LHP, 24, High-A
37. Romeo Sanabria, 1B, 21, Single-A
38. Kannon Kemp, RHP, 19, High school
39. Oliver Carrillo, OF/1B, 21, Rookie (DSL)
40. Manuel Castro, RHP, 21, Single-A
41. Henry Baez, RHP, 21, High-A
42. Braden Nett, RHP, 21, Single-A
43. Anthony Vilar, C, 24, High-A
44. Hugo Sanchez, 1B, 21, Rookie (DSL)
45. Ismael Javier, SS, 18, Rookie (DSL)
46. Carson Montgomery, RHP, 21, College
47. Jay Beshears, 2B, 21, Single-A
48. Kevin Hacen, 3B, 17, Rookie (DSL)
49. Jose Luis Reyes, RHP, 21, Single-A
50. Jason Hernandez, 2B, 17, Rookie (DSL)

Bergert showed improved command while reaching AA in 2023 as he continues his way back from TJS. Perez Jr. had good power numbers the past couple seasons in the Mariners org, now looking to do the same for the Padres after signing as a FA. One of the top IFA signings from the 2021 class, Montesino made his stateside debut after missing all of 2022 with injury. RP Jacob had an impressive start in AA before an injury ended his season. Reynolds, acquired from Miami at the deadline, should see time in the Padres bullpen this season. Mears, a former 2nd round pick, is still struggling to find his way with the bat. Castonan looked good hitting 17 HR, and batting.284 in AA. Ornelas, still only 23 years old, should get a look on the Padres this season after finally making it to AAA in 2023 after many years in the Pads’ organization. Hawkins has the makings of a solid middle reliever in the majors. Lowe and Haynes are a couple of young pitchers who have both had injuries slow their progress but if healthy they could move quick. Nett pitched in the AFL where he had 21K in 17.2 IP. Sanabria is a catcher who had a nice start in the Complex League slugging 8 HR, 53 RBI while batting .358. The balance of Tier 5 is filled out with a few promising players selected in the 2022 Draft in Gonzalez, Dickerson, Kemp, Montgomery, and Beshears, along with some other young players to keep and eye on from the DSL – OF Carrillo, and IFs Sanchez, Javier, Hacen and Hernandez. (@gregbracken07)

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Adam Greene

Adam Greene is a Sport Management and Marketing double major at UMass Amherst's Isenberg School of Management. His main focus is sport marketing, where he's already had internships with the local Westfield Starfires and Springfield Thunderbirds. He now writes for the Cape Cod Baseball League. From Longmeadow, MA, Adam is a huge Red Sox fan and has been following the team his whole life. When Covid hit, he started paying a lot more attention to the Red Sox minor league teams, and now, follows them almost as much as the big league squad. Follow him on Twitter at @aj_greene1015 and Instagram at the same handle.

Scott Greene

President of Prospects1500. Founder of Diamond Duos dynasty fantasy baseball leagues and the MLB Fantasy Playoffs Parlay. Participant and champion in several dynasty/fantasy baseball and football leagues. Sales Manager for Reminder Publishing in real life. Huge Bruce Springsteen and pro wrestling fan. Along with his wife and two boys, lives in Longmeadow, MA. Follow on Twitter at @Scotty_Ballgame.

Jeremy Mahy

Jeremy covers the St Louis organization and contributes on Prospects of the Week for Prospects1500. Born and raised in the Midwest, he is a lifelong fan of the Birds on the Bat. You can follow him on Twitter @JMahyfam for more baseball content.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too." -Yogi Berra

Tony Bps

Tony Bps Spina is a lifelong baseball fan hailing from the City of Brotherly Love - Philadelphia! Tony has loved baseball since 1980 and has followed the Phillies through good and bad times. Tony is married with 3 kids and works for a financial institution but has enough free time to play in 20 fantasy baseball leagues with 75% of them being Dynasty Leagues. He lives a few blocks away from Citizens Bank Park and attends many Phillies games per year in addition to their minor league teams in Lehigh Valley and Reading. He can be reached on Twitter at @TonyBps1.