Slowly but surely, the minor league landscape is returning to form for the Atlanta Braves. The team finished the 2023 regular season with the most wins in baseball at 104. They also led the majors in runs scored per game at 5.8 and run differential at 1.4 per game. Sadly, it was yet another early exit in the postseason at the hands of the Phillies.
The Braves have relied heavily on minor league hitting development recently, with the likes of Acuna, Albies, Riley and Michael Harris having all been developed in-house. A quick look at the current hitting depth in the minors paints a pretty bleak picture on that front. There are a few names to know here, but it’s the pitching side that really shows some promise. GM Alex Anthopoulos will continue to attack the international free agent market for hitting, while the foundation of the minor league system will continue to be centered on pitching. (@MKelley_ND)
Special guest contributor, Locked on MLB Prospects’ Lindsay Crosby (@CrosbyBaseball), and eight Prospects1500 writers contributed to this column and rankings including Michael Kelley (@MKelley_ND), Scott Greene (@Scotty_Ballgame), Tony Bps (@tonybps1), Greg Bracken (@gregbracken07), Shaun Kernahan (@ShaunKernahan), Adam Greene (@aj_greene1015), Clint Fasse (@ProspectLarceny), and Jeremy Mahy (@JMahyfam). The writer’s Twitter handle follows each player write-up or paragraph.
Prospects1500 Tiers:
Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years
Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor
Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor
Tier 4: Players who have the potential to make the majors; possible sleeper candidates for sustained MLB success
Tier 5: Players of interest, worth keeping an eye on, who may make (or have made) the majors but provide minimal impact
J15 international signees Jose Perdomo, SS and Juan Espinal, OF will likely be ranked on this list come the midseason update. If they slotted in right now, Perdomo would be near the top of Tier 3, with Espinal lower in Tier 5 around #35.
Levels listed for each player are the highest levels player reached in 2023
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
1. AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP, 21, MLB
It’s been a rocketship ascent for the 6’3, 205 pound righty out of Colleyville (TX) Heritage High. Smith-Shawver wasn’t in the minors long, having only 36 total starts and 139 IP in just over two years before being called up by the Braves last season. He’s still minor league eligible from a prospect perspective due to only 25.1 big league innings. His arsenal is a 4 pitch mix (fastball, slider, curve, changeup), with the fastball sitting mid-90s with average movement. One area I’d look for him to focus on is his curveball, as he leaves it up in the zone too much with hitters teeing off at a .364 clip. (@MKelley_ND)
2. Hurston Waldrep, RHP, 21, Triple-A
I said it many times leading into the MLB Draft and even well after. There were two arms that have legitimate ace upside, Paul Skenes and Hurson Waldrep! Waldrep has three plus pitches with a heavy fastball he runs up to 97 and a double plus split that is just unfair as it disappears as it reaches the plate. His down breaking slider would be a very good secondary pitch for most arms, but it is a distant third offering while still being plus. The knock with Waldrep is his command and he has really struggled at times, which also opens up some reliever risk. That said, go to every big game he toed the rubber for and he seemed to be better the bigger the game, so there are no lights too bright for this power arm. (@ShaunKernahan)
Tier 3
3. Owen Murphy, RHP, 20, High-A
Murphy committed to Notre Dame out of high school. He chose to forego his studies in South Bend, in favor of a professional career with the Braves. Once a two-way prospect, he seems to have settled in as a starting pitcher. Based on what he’s displayed so far, they may have made the right decision. He boasts a mid-90s heater with some decent secondary offerings at this stage. The walk rate has been steady in the low 3’s, with excellent strikeout numbers. He currently gives up too many hits to project as an ace, but a #2 ceiling isn’t out of the question at this point in his development. (@MKelley_ND)
4. Ignacio Alvarez, SS, 20, High-A
One of the best contact hitters in Atlanta’s system, Alvarez sports a plus hit tool, coming in at 83% contact last season. The questions around the youngster come down to his power and defensive position – can he find more homer power in the maxed out frame, and does his fringy speed and range prevent him from staying at shortstop, necessitating a move to third base? (@CrosbyBaseball)
5. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, 23, High-A
Coming back from collegiate Tommy John surgery to throw 65 innings in the lower minors for Atlanta, Schwellenbach’s shown surprisingly strong command with a legitimate four pitch mix. With a heater that can touch 99, a strong changeup, and a curveball/cutter combo in reserve, it’s a toolsy package that’s hopefully going to lend itself to more strikeouts in 2024 as Schwellenbach looks to establish himself as one of the top pitching prospects in a system full of pitching prospects. (@CrosbyBaseball)
6. JR Ritchie, RHP, 20, Single-A
Ritchie’s 2023 season ended prematurely when he underwent Tommy John surgery to repair his UCL. It’s a small sample size, but in his 13.1 innings of work he dominated opposing hitters and struck out 25. All four of his pitches, fastball, slider, changeup, and curve, are commanded well and Ritchie avoids walks. His slider is his best pitch and generates the most whiffs. With the surgery, he’ll be out for a good portion of 2024 but the Braves hope to get him back on track when healthy. (@aj_greene1015)
7. Cade Kuehler, RHP, 21, Single-A
Kuehler defies convention as he has a big leg kick with some extreme short arm in his delivery and plenty of effort and moving parts, but his stuff holds up even after he hits the triple digit mark on his pitch count. Given all the moving parts, there are some command concerns, but the stuff leaves no questions. His fastball has hit 98 but sits more 94-96 to go with a plus slider, borderline plus curve, and a quality change. He absolutely needs to dial in the command if he is going to stay in the rotation, as he tends to miss over the plate far too often and sees even his best stuff barreled up pretty often. If the Braves player development staff can help him reel in his control, he can be a mid-rotation arm. There is reliever risk as someone who can’t be used in high leverage situations, which gives him as wide a range of outcomes as any college player that was drafted in 2023. (@ShaunKernahan)
8. Luis Guanipa, OF, 18, Rookie (DSL)
The Venezuelan outfielder plays exceptional defense, which earned him a $2.5 million signing bonus from the Braves last January. Guanipa has great speed too making him dangerous when he’s on base, and has a power swing to match it. The contact numbers weren’t anything crazy, but the 18 year-old only has 46 games of experience in the DSL, so Atlanta will take their time refining his skills. Guanipa’s combination of power, speed, and defensive prowess make him an interesting prospect that looks to be on the rise. (@aj_greene1015)
9. Jhancarlos Lara, RHP, 21, High-A
One of the biggest risers in Atlanta’s system in 2023, Lara sports a fastball/slider combo that both get plenty of whiffs in the zone and chase out of the zone. While he throws those two pitches a combined 90+ percent of the time, he’s also sitting on an upper-80s changeup that could be a dangerous third weapon with some more polish. He improved his overall command and control last season, as well as his walk rate, and 2024 is a big season for the youngster as he looks to establish himself as a top-tier pitching prospect in the upper minors. (@CrosbyBaseball)
Tier 4
10. Luis De Avila, LHP, 22, Triple-A
11. Darius Vines, RHP, 25, MLB
12. David McCabe, 3B, 23, High-A
13. Ambioris Tavarez, SS, 20, Single-A
14. Drue Hackenberg, RHP, 21, Double-A
15. Drake Baldwin, C, 22, Triple-A
16. Dylan Dodd, LHP, 25, MLB
17. Adam Maier, RHP, 22, Injured (College in 2022)
De Avila has potential to be a solid starter in the majors. Vines has the makings of a back of the rotation type starter. McCabe has good power but needs to work on his overall hitting ability to contribute. Looked good in the AFL. Hackenburg looks to be a 5th starter with more command over velocity. Baldwin could be a backup catcher with some power in his bat. Dodd struggled in the majors but can still develop into a serviceable starter. Maier has a good feel for pitching but hasn’t been on the mound since being drafted in 2022 because of Tommy John surgery. He should be healthy going into this season. (@tonybps1)
Tier 5
18. Geraldo Quintero, 2B, 22, High-A
19. Lucas Braun, RHP, 22, High-A
20. Cedric De Grandpre, RHP, 22, High-A
21. Isaiah Drake, OF, 18, Rookie (FCL)
22. Sabin Ceballos, 3B, 21, Single-A
23. Douglas Glod, OF, 19, Rookie (FCL)
24. Garrett Baumann, RHP, 19, Single-A
25. Cal Conley, SS/2B, 24, Double-A
26. Allan Winans, RHP, 28, MLB
27. Jesse Franklin V, OF, 25, Double-A
28. Diego Benitez, SS, 19, Rookie (FCL)
29. Mario Baez, SS, 17, Rookie (DSL)
30. Blake Burkhalter, RHP, 23, Injured (Single-A in 2022)
31. Seth Keller, RHP, 19, Single-A
32. Luke Waddell, SS/2B, 25, Triple-A
33. Tyler Owens, RHP, 23, Double-A
34. Javier Valdes, C/1B, 25, Double-A
35. Tyler Tolve, C, 23, Double-A
36. Davis Polo, RHP, 19, Rookie (FCL)
37. Hayden Harris, LHP, 24, Double-A
38. Landon Stephens, OF, 25, Double-A
39. Adam Shoemaker, LHP, 21, Single-A
40. Jared Johnson, RHP, 22, High-A
41. Didier Fuentes, RHP, 18, Single-A
42. Ethan Workinger, OF, 22, High-A
43. Tyler Collins, OF, 20, Single-A
44. Keshawn Ogans, 3B/2B/SS, 22, High-A
45. Cody Milligan, OF, 25, Double-A
46. Adam Zebrowski, C, 23, High-A
47. John Gil, 3B/1B, 17, Rookie (DSL)
48. Jorge Bautista, RHP, 23, High-A
49. Kevin Kilpatrick Jr., OF, 23, High-A
50. Kade Kern, OF, 22, Single-A
Quintero is fast but needs to work on his hit-tool to be more than a bench player. Braun doesn’t have overpowering stuff but throws well. Drake is a tooled-up outfielder who needs more at-bats to show the type of player he can be. Ceballos has a good eye at the plate but lacks power or speed to be more than a backup/bench player. Glod projects to be a backup outfielder. If Baumann can work through his command issues, he can be a mid-rotation starter in the majors. Conley has some speed but may not hit enough to be a starting player in the majors. Winans is 28 and could see some spot starts this season in the major leagues (has 6 GS for Atlanta in ’23). Franklin has impressed with his power and developing hit tool since being taken in the 2020 draft. Benitez has struggled since signing as an international free agent back in January 2022. Baez, as a 16-year-old in Rookie ball, put up a slashline of .311/.393/.422 with 24 steals. He’s years away from the major leagues but keep an eye on him. Waddell has a solid hit tool with average power but is almost ready to make his major league debut, perhaps as a bench player this season. Valdes has good pop in his bat and can get on base. If his hitting develops, he could be a backup catcher. Tolve has solid all-around tools at the plate and could be a solid backup catcher with potential for more. Stephens has hit for power but strikes out too much to make an impact. Workinger has some pop but no speed and doesn’t hit well enough to be more than a potential bench player. Following a good year at High-A Rome, Ogans hit .299 in the Arizona Fall League and will hopefully see Double-A this year. Milligan is great defensively and could be a bench outfielder in the majors as soon as this season. Kilpatrick is a potential 4th outfielder with average all-around tools. (@tonybps1)
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Adam Greene is a Sport Management and Marketing double major at UMass Amherst's Isenberg School of Management. His main focus is sport marketing, where he's already had internships with the local Westfield Starfires and Springfield Thunderbirds. He now writes for the Cape Cod Baseball League. From Longmeadow, MA, Adam is a huge Red Sox fan and has been following the team his whole life. When Covid hit, he started paying a lot more attention to the Red Sox minor league teams, and now, follows them almost as much as the big league squad. Follow him on Twitter at @aj_greene1015 and Instagram at the same handle.
President of Prospects1500. Founder of Diamond Duos dynasty fantasy baseball leagues and the MLB Fantasy Playoffs Parlay. Participant and champion in several dynasty/fantasy baseball and football leagues. Sales Manager for Reminder Publishing in real life. Huge Bruce Springsteen and pro wrestling fan. Along with his wife and two boys, lives in Longmeadow, MA. Follow on Twitter at @Scotty_Ballgame.
Jeremy covers the St Louis organization and contributes on Prospects of the Week for Prospects1500. Born and raised in the Midwest, he is a lifelong fan of the Birds on the Bat. You can follow him on Twitter @JMahyfam for more baseball content.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too." -Yogi Berra
Tony Bps Spina is a lifelong baseball fan hailing from the City of Brotherly Love - Philadelphia! Tony has loved baseball since 1980 and has followed the Phillies through good and bad times. Tony is married with 3 kids and works for a financial institution but has enough free time to play in 20 fantasy baseball leagues with 75% of them being Dynasty Leagues. He lives a few blocks away from Citizens Bank Park and attends many Phillies games per year in addition to their minor league teams in Lehigh Valley and Reading. He can be reached on Twitter at @TonyBps1.
Born in Arizona. Raised in the Midwest, and with lots of baseball. When I’m not writing about baseball or purchasing my next baseball card, I can be seen coasting down the highway to yet another travel baseball tournament with my wife and son. I love the Braves, bat flips and outfield assists.
Shaun Kernahan is the MLB Draft correspondent for Prospects1500. When not at a game, chances are the TV and/or tablet has a game on and he has a notepad out taking notes. When not scouting draft prospects, he is the Director of Baseball Operations for the Mile High Collegiate Baseball League, a collegiate wood bat league in Colorado. Shaun can be found on Twitter at @ShaunKernahan.
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Shaun Kernahanhttps://www.prospects1500.com/author/skernahan1500/
I’ve noticed that many organizations don’t have many guys in the top 3 tiers as in the past. Are you guys increasing your standards for these higher tiers?
You may look at it that way. If we’re doing what we want to do, Tier 1 players are arguably Top 30 overall in baseball. Tier 2 players should makeup up about the next 70-75 overall players, so basically, Top 100 or close.