Corbin Carroll and the Hodgetown Hangover

corbin carroll sod poodles — Corbin Carroll, Amarillo Sod Poodles Marvel Super Hero Night, June 11, 2022. Photo credit John Moore, @johnemoore3 on Twitter

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Outfielder Corbin Carroll is maybe the hottest dynasty prospect in fantasy baseball right now. Baseball Prospectus and Rotowire now rank him as the #1 prospect for dynasty, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take the top spot in Prospect1500’s next overall top prospects rankings.

It’s not hard to see why Carroll has entered the upper echelon. Through his first 50 games this season, he’s slashed .330/.446/.655 with 14 HR, 19 SB, a 15% BB% and a 24.2% K% (stats as of 6/14/22). This is significant production for a 21-year-old playing at AA and is the kind of stuff that dynasty teams are built on. However, there is an important reason why I think the broader dynasty community might be jumping the gun a bit with Carroll.

The Diamondbacks AA-affiliate Amarillo Sod Poodles play their home games at Hodgetown, which is one of the friendliest parks for hitters in the minors, particularly in terms of power. In 2021, Baseball America estimated Hodgetown to have 69% more home runs than the average minor league ballpark. This ranked 3rd in all the minors behind High-A Greensboro (Pirates, 94% above average) and High-A Spokane (Rockies, 74% above average). Part of the reason for the high level of offense is the elevation. Amarillo sits at roughly 3,600 feet above sea level, making it one of the highest parks in the minor leagues.

To see how this might affect Carroll, I decided to take a look at his home/road splits using game logs. After crunching the numbers, I found a pretty stark divide. At home, Carroll is mashing to the tune of .368/.479/.769 with a 1.248 OPS and .303 ISO over 29 games. However, on the road he’s hitting .275/.398/.488 with an .886 OPS and just .066 ISO over 21 games. His road line is still a good one, but the stark contrast in power is worrying. He has just seven extra-base hits on the road compared to 23 at Hodgetown, as well as more than double the amount of home runs at home (10) as he does on the road (4).

And it’s not just Carroll; his teammates also look to be getting a boost from Amarillo. The table below shows the ISO home/road splits for all 2022 Amarillo hitters with at least 150 PA and a SLG above .500.

Player	Home ISO	Road ISO	Difference
Dominic Fletcher	.397	.025	0.372
Blaze Alexander	.356	.007	0.349
Juan Centeno	.305	.027	0.278
Corbin Carroll	.304	.066	0.238
Leandro Cedeno	.127	.249	-0.122

With the exception of Leandro Cedeno (who has actually hit for more power on the road), these differences are shocking and highlight the power benefits that Amarillo players enjoy from playing half their games at AA. However, their road power numbers are so low that it seems there’s another factor at play. For reference, the average ISO among qualified Texas League batters this season is .184, far higher than the road ISOs of these Amarillo hitters.

It seems they may be experiencing a hangover effect akin to that of the one Rockies hitters experience trying to adjust to playing on the road after playing at Coors, AKA the “Coors Hangover.” As Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon explained in a 2020 interview for The Athletic, the ball moves differently at higher altitudes. This makes it difficult to adjust to pitch movement on the road at lower altitudes, thus reducing offensive output. So, while the high altitude seems to make it easier for Amarillo batters to hit for power at home, the Hodgetown Hangover effect looks like it is punishing them as they play on the road.

With regards to Carroll, this is both worrisome and encouraging. On the one hand, he is likely playing above his true projectable power output. On the other hand, his road numbers are also likely lower than what we might expect from him if he were playing at a consistent altitude. This suggests that his true potential lies somewhere closer to the middle. It’s also important to note that Carroll’s walk and strikeout rates are similar on the road as they are at home, with 15.3% BB%/23.7% K% on the road and 14.3% BB%/25.2% K% at home. This suggests that the Hodgetown Hangover may not have much of an effect on his plate discipline, but more precisely on his ability to barrel the ball.

I want to be clear that I still think Carroll is a very, very good dynasty prospect. Even with the artificial power boost, he still shows enough as a 21-year-old at AA to be considered among the game’s top prospects. I don’t think his low power on the road is an accurate representation of his true power skill, but the Hodgetown effect also clouds the picture on what that skill might actually be.

Carroll is showing the potential to be an impact on-base/speed weapon at the major league level, but I would hesitate to label him as an impact power threat. Additionally, his so-so contact/strikeout rate profile so far this year call into question where the hit tool falls as well. For these reasons, I think Carroll is closer to #10 than #1 overall, at least until we can see him play without the Hodgetown effect and subsequent hangover clouding his production.

Doug Otto

Doug Otto is the High-A Central league correspondent and Arizona Diamondbacks correspondent for Prospects1500. He is an avid follower and consumer of prospect news, rankings, and data. He also has experience playing fantasy baseball, mostly in deep dynasty formats. When Doug isn’t researching prospects, he’s either watching movies or baking dessert. He can be found on Twitter at
@hdouglasotto