Arizona Diamondbacks Top 50 Prospects (2022)

January 30, 2022 Doug Otto Diamondbacks, General, MiLB, NL West, Top 50 Lists 0

Diamondbacks Top 50 graphic design by @artbyMikeP on Twitter
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The Diamondbacks had a rough go of it in 2021, as the major league team tied for the worst overall record (52-110), and even lost the 1st overall pick in the 2022 Draft to the Orioles in the tiebreaker. Still, they have a fantastic minor league system with star power and depth (especially pitching depth) to hang their hat on. There’s a seed of a contending team in here. They just need to do a better job at transitioning these players into consistently impactful major leaguers, something the Diamondbacks have not been particularly successful with over the last decade.

Many thanks to Prospects1500 staff writers Eric Herauf (@ejh1528), Jeremy Mahy (@JMahyfam), and Joe Rush (@joeprush) for their assistance with this list.


Diamondbacks MiLB affiliates:
Reno Aces (@Aces) – AAA
Amarillo Sod Poodles (@sodpoodles) – AA
Hillsboro Hops (@HillsboroHops) – High-A
Visalia Rawhide (@VisaliaRawhide)- Low-A
Arizona Complex League Diamondbacks – Rookie
Dominican Summer League Diamondbacks – Rookie

Prospects1500 Tiers:
Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years
Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor
Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor
Tier 4: Players who have the potential of making the majors, or have a high likelihood of making the majors, but provide minimal impact (e.g. middle reliever, low-ceiling UT guys)
Tier 5: Players of interest, worth keeping an eye on, who have an outside chance of making a team’s 40-man roster.

Levels listed for each player are the highest-level player reached
*= signifies member of 40-man roster

Tier 1

1. Corbin Carroll, OF, 21, High-A
Carroll was on fire in 2021 before a shoulder injury ended his season after just 29 plate appearances. His shoulder injury happened on a homerun swing, which could cloud his power outlook if he needs to reduce his swing effort in order to avoid reinjuring his shoulder. It’s fantasy superstar upside if that power ever becomes a regular piece of his profile, but we’ve seen so little of him since 2019 that it’s hard to be entirely sure what a reasonable projection for him looks like. He’s still an elite prospect in my eyes (it’s hard to go wrong with potential plus hit and double-plus speed tools), but I want to see consistent health and game power before I consider him a true top 10 overall prospect.

2. Alek Thomas, OF, 21, AAA
Thomas built on his standout professional track record (he’s hit at or above .300 every year he’s played) in 2021, reaching AAA and new bests in power and home runs. Some of that power seems to have been a little lucky though, as an unsustainable 29% of his AAA flyballs went for homers, covering for his high groundball rates (+50% at both AA and AAA). He’s got plus raw speed to leg out extra-base hits but has yet to translate it into consistent stolen base success. Plus hitting ability and elite production at AAA as a 21-year-old spell a very bright future for Thomas, though he’ll likely need to loft the ball a bit more and shore up his base-stealing skills to get the most out of his considerable tools.

Tier 2

3. Jordan Lawlar, SS, 19, Rookie (ACL)
Considering he was projected to go within the first four picks of the 2021 draft and was thought of by some to be the best pure talent in the class, Lawlar was good value for the Diamondbacks at the sixth overall pick. He has potential plus tools across the board, marrying batting eye, power, and speed with silky smooth defensive skills at short. Like Carroll, Lawlar’s 2021 pro season was cut short by a shoulder injury quickly after it began. He’s got a ways to go before reaching the majors, but his upside compares with that of the names ahead of him on this list, and he could take off quickly with good health.

4. Geraldo Perdomo*, SS, 22, MLB
Perdomo’s long been known as a prospect with plus on-base and contact abilities with very limited power. That lack of power seemed to catch up to him in 2021, as his short major league debut to start the season looked like a player struggling to make an impact. He was demoted all the way to AA and continued to struggle until eventually reworking his swing and beginning to  regularly hit for more power en route to another, more successful stab at the majors. If he can hit for power and continue getting on base, he’ll be a very valuable shortstop for some time to come.

5. Drey Jameson, RHP, 24, AA
Jameson might have the best pure stuff out of anyone in the Diamondbacks system, and he made a good case for himself as a starter in 2021, frequently pitching deep into games. His four-seamer (which occasionally reaches 100mph) is supplemented by a well-rounded arsenal including a true out-pitch in his slider. He displayed solid command of his pitches, though the uptick in walks at AA is a little concerning. His excellent ability to generate whiffs sets him up nicely for the next challenge at AAA.

6. Ryne Nelson, RHP, 23, AA
Nelson had a similar 2021 season as Jameson, pitching deep into games all year and racking up strikeouts across High-A and AA. He spent his 2021 focusing on cleaning up his delivery and sequencing his four pitches better, to good results. While he currently doesn’t have quite the strikeout upside of Jameson, he still induces enough swing-and-miss to project as a useful #3 starter.

7. Blake Walston, LHP, 20, High-A
Walston is one of the younger high-upside pitchers in the organization, flashing his potential across Low-A and High-A in 2021. While he found more success at Low-A, his High-A performance also wasn’t too far behind, though there are a couple indicators that suggest he might not have totally passed the level yet. Even at pitcher-friendly Hillsboro, his flyball rates shot up to an untenable 48% and a corresponding barrage of homers and his strikeout rate decreased noticeably. On the bright side, he continued to display excellent control and stamina, and at just 20 years old, time is on his side to iron out the wrinkles.

8. Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B, 18, Low-A
De Los Santos is arguably the Diamondbacks’ hottest dynasty name in the low minors besides Lawlar. While he’s not quite a household name yet, he rose from Rookie-ball obscurity to dynasty hype thanks to excellent power and on-base abilities. Showing he can keep a lid on the strikeout rate is priority #1 for 2022, but he’ll still be 18 years old for the first couple months of the 2022 season, so he’s got time to work it out. Very high upside.

9. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, 23, AA
Pfaadt may be the last pitcher of this tier, but don’t overlook him. The tall righty had a great 2021, climbing his way up to AA by staying healthy, throwing strikes, and getting whiffs. Pfaadt’s main issue in 2021 was his high flyball rates that led to him getting burnt by the AA homerun factory that is Amarillo. While AAA Reno is another hitter’s park, it doesn’t seem to be quite the home run haven, so I assume that home run rate will correct with a change of scenery.

Tier 3

10. Jorge Barrosa, OF, 20, High-A
Barrosa is not a very popular name in dynasty baseball circles, but he performed very well for a 20-year-old at Low-A and High-A in 2021. He has a contact-oriented approach, strikes out less than 20% of the time, is a solid base stealer, and also has a little power in the bat at present. His surface stats look like they got a little sapped in High-A thanks to the pitcher-friendly environments of Hillsboro and could rebound in 2022 at bandbox Double-A Amarillo. He might never be an All-Star, but there’s enough here to make him an excellent dynasty stash for rebuilding teams.

11. A.J. Vukovich, 3B, 20, High-A
Vukovich mostly made good on his post-draft hype as a potential breakout candidate in 2021, playing well across Low-A and High-A. While it wasn’t a full breakout season, he looked like a well-rounded player contributing power, speed, and batting average. That said, he has an aggressive plate approach that might get him into more trouble in the upper minors, and he needs to be more discerning to get on base more.

12. Seth Beer*, 1B/DH, 25, MLB
Beer may be older than you’d like for a bat-first prospect, but it’s hard to deny his track record. He’s fairly consistently proven he can get on base and hit for power since his college days, which gives me a little more confidence he can keep it up to some extent against major league pitching. It’s hard to be sure what level of impact he’ll have (especially with the NL DH up in the air) but if he can ever get regular playing time, he could be a solid average player. Beer was the third high-profile Diamondbacks prospect to lose time due to a shoulder injury, but it seems he’ll be healthy to start the year.

13. Kristian Robinson, OF, 21, DNP in 2021 (Short Season and Low-A in 2019)
It feels like not long ago that Robinson was once discussed as a potential top 10 dynasty prospect overall, but after the lost 2020 season followed by legal/personal issues that kept him off the field in 2021, his outlook has become murky. Still just 21 years old, Robinson has plenty of runway to take off again, but no one really knows what he looks like right now. Given the hit tool concerns prior to his absence, the variance of outcomes here is fairly wide. I hope he is in good health and returns to baseball only when he is comfortable, legal issues pending.

14. Tommy Henry, LHP, 23, AA
Henry held his own in AA in 2021, showing real strikeout ability and maintaining a starter’s workload throughout the season. The 5+ ERA looks like more the product of bad luck given his high strikeout rates and hitter’s environment in Amarillo, but his control appears to be an issue. He’ll need to correct that to get better results in 2022.

15. Ryan Bliss, SS, 22, Low-A
Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft out of Auburn, Bliss is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. Some think he won’t hit for enough power to be a regular at the major league level, while others say his contact skills and year-over-year power progressions in college suggest more is yet to come. Some think he can stick at short while others think his arm strength will force a move to second. I’m a sucker for contact skills and players who generally exceed expectations, so consider me a fan.

16. Buddy Kennedy, 3B, 23, AA
Kennedy is an under-the-radar prospect who has an established minor league track record of hitting for average and moderate power while limiting strikeouts. His power seemed to enter another gear in 2021, though it’s hard to parse out how much of that was hitter-friendly AA Amarillo or true power progression. His strikeout rate also increased upon promotion, but so did his walk rate, so he might just be in the process of adjusting to upper-level pitching. Regardless, Kennedy is inching closer to a future as a useful major leaguer with a chance for more.

17. Luis Frias*, RHP, 23, MLB
Frías was a popular sleeper breakout pick headed into 2021, and while he did climb all the way from High-A to an MLB debut, his prospect status seems to have dimmed. As with many other pitchers on this list, he appears to have run into bad luck at AA, but his (admittedly small sample) stay at AAA looked deservedly rough. The home runs corrected after leaving AA, though his strikeout rates look like they might settle in somewhere closer to average. Frías also showed he could handle a starter’s workload, but his stuff might play up better in relief.

18. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, 24, AA
Jarvis, the Diamondbacks’ first-round pick in 2020, was yet another promising pitching prospect who reached AA Amarillo in 2021. Much like some of the pitchers ahead of him on this list, Jarvis’ ERA was inflated at AA thanks to the homerun conducive environment. I’m a little lower on Jarvis because his walk rate increased to 4.4/9, was limited to some shorter outings, and lost some swing-and-miss at AA. He might be better suited in a high-leverage relief role unless he can clean up those areas in 2022.

19. Slade Cecconi, RHP, 22, High-A
Cecconi performed well in his debut year, turning in 59 innings in High-A before losing the rest of his season due to injury at the end of July. He showed an ability to throw strikes while also maintaining a healthy batted ball profile, but his 10.4% swinging-strike rate leaves much to be desired. Unless he can bump that number up, he profiles as a back-end fantasy starter.

Tier 4

20. Stuart Fairchild*, OF, 25, MLB
21. Jake McCarthy*, OF, 24, MLB
22. Adrian Del Castillo, C, 22, Low-A
23. Junior Franco, OF, 19, Rookie (ACL)
24. Chad Patrick, RHP, 23, Low-A
25. Drew Ellis*, 3B, 26, MLB
26. Joe Elbis, RHP, 19, Low-A
27. Manuel Pena, 3B, 18, Rookie (DSL)
28. Dominic Canzone, OF, 24, AA
29. Scott Randall, RHP, 23, Low-A
30. Abdias de La Cruz, SS, 17, International signee
31. Cooper Hummel*, C/OF, 27, AAA
32. Matt Tabor, RHP, 23, AAA
33. Eduardo Diaz, OF, 24, AA
34. J.B. Bukauskas*, RHP, 25, MLB
35. Edwin Uceta*, RHP, 24, MLB
36. Jose Herrera*, C, 24, AAA
37. Andy Yerzy, C/1B, 23, AA
38. Jacob Steinmetz, RHP, 18, Rookie (ACL)
39. Humberto Mejia*, RHP, 24, MLB

Fairchild showed a nice power/speed/average combo at AAA in 2021, but his advanced age complicates how well it will translate to major league pitching…..McCarthy rose from AA to make his major league debut in 2021. He projects as a bench speed option with occasional power that won’t kill you in batting average…..Del Castillo has struggled over the past calendar year, though he was once considered the top college hitter in the 2021 draft class. The college pedigree is mostly keeping his profile afloat…..Elbis impressed in Rookie-ball and made it to Low-A at 18 years old. The risk is sky-high but he has breakout potential…..Canzone has been steadily trending up over the past year, thanks in part to a stellar Fall League showing. I’d like to see him do it against more age-appropriate competition, but there’s some upside here…..de La Cruz was the Diamondbacks IFA signing for the 2021-2022 class based on signing bonus. As with almost all IFA signings, it could be a while before we really get a sense of what kind of player he could be…..Hummel has a long track record of getting on base and hitting for moderate power against younger competition. There’s a chance he can be a useful player at the major league level, but he looks like a bench option if it clicks…..Bukauskas was once a top prospect with the Astros, but has struggled to stay healthy since then. He still shows great strikeout ability but needs to show he can stay on the field…..Uceta got playing time with the Dodgers in 2021 before getting claimed off waivers by the Diamondbacks. He needs to throw more strikes but there are enough whiffs here to keep me interested.

Tier 5

40. Jake Rice, LHP, 24, High-A
41. Mitchell Stumpo, RHP, 25, AAA
42. Kenny Castillo, C, 17, Rookie (DSL)
43. Conor Grammes, RHP, 24, High-A
44. Neyfy Castillo, 3B/OF, 20, Low-A
45. Dominic Fletcher, OF, 24, AA
46. Jeferson Espinal, OF, 19, Low-A
47. Cam Coursey, 2B, 23, High-A
48. Yerald Nin, SS, 16, International signee
49. Jose Fernandez, 2B, 18, Rookie (ACL)
50. Alberto Ciprian, 3B/OF, 19, Rookie (DSL)

Kenny Castillo is one of the youngest players on this list, and was one of the better Diamondbacks to play in the DSL…..Grammes showed some strikeout ability that could play up with health and a move to shorter high-leverage outings…..Neyfy Castillo racked up plenty of counting stats at Low-A, though plate discipline has to improve for future success…..Espinal was unable to translate his Rookie-level performance into full-season success, as he struggled to make contact, get on-base, and hit for power. The clock is ticking on a turnaround, but he’s got time…..Coursey displayed excellent batting eye and speed, though he has limited power and needs to prove himself against more age-appropriate upper-minors competition…..Nin received the second-highest bonus of the Diamondbacks 2021-2022 IFA class, and is one of the youngest players to sign this period.

Doug Otto

Doug Otto is the High-A Central league correspondent and Arizona Diamondbacks correspondent for Prospects1500. He is an avid follower and consumer of prospect news, rankings, and data. He also has experience playing fantasy baseball, mostly in deep dynasty formats. When Doug isn’t researching prospects, he’s either watching movies or baking dessert. He can be found on Twitter at
@hdouglasotto

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