NFBC and Prospects1500: First Base

Some people love drafting early, completing drafts by the end of January. Those people didn’t draft Chris Carter (or Dae-ho Lee?) who is currently averaging a higher draft position than any first base prospect being selected.

Note: NFBC draft positions were exported around January 31st.

Trey Mancini

NFBC draft position – Average: 522 | Minimum: 346 | Maximum: 663

Prospects1500 Team Rank: 6th Orioles

There was that moment during the offseason when Mancini was slated for at-bats with the parent club. Then, Seth Smith came to town and Mark Trumbo never left.

One has to suspect that Mancini is the first man up if an injury occurs. And as a 34th round pick, one could do much worse than an average-power player who can hit for average.

Rhys Hoskins

NFBC draft position – Average: 593| Minimum: 459 | Maximum: 734

Prospects 1500 Team Rank: 5th Phillies

Hoskins shot into the picture for many prospect hunters last year. Hitting 38 HRs with a 12% walk rate (and reasonable 21% strikeout rate) will do that. And now he has earned himself a non-roster invite to spring training.

As is the case in NFBC drafts, it seems a number of people are chasing some upside with Hoskins in hopes that Philadelphia calls him up. But, unless Philadelphia finds themselves competitive this year, it seems unlikely they would start the clock on their young 1B. And at the expense of someone on their 40-man roster.

Rowdy Tellez

NFBC draft position – Average: 629| Minimum: 373 | Maximum: 738

Toronto Blue Jay Top 50 Prospects for 2017

On the surface, Tellez and Hoskins don’t seem to be too different. Scouting the state line, they both seem to do well controlling the zone and can mash. Tellez happens to be two years younger and drafted 25 rounds later.

And, according to Roster Resource, he may get a callup this year, presumably once rosters expand. This seems reasonable, unlike Hoskins, because there’s a reasonable chance to both expect Toronto to be in the playoff picture and for Tellez to continue producing.

So, if I’m competing this year or looking for a worthwhile flyer late in the NFBC draft, Tellez is my pick over Hoskins.

Sam Travis

NFBC draft position – Average: 678 | Minimum: 605 | Maximum: 720

Prospects 1500 Team Rank: 5th Phillies

Travis tore his ACL last year and he’s not currently on the 40-man roster. That’s two strikes, but I’m not seeing a third. And even the 40-man roster may not stop the Red Sox who would need to add Travis in the offseason.

From all appearances, he looks like he could contribute and possibly even as early as this year. Nothing against the guys in front of him, but it’s plausible Travis will gain some at-bats late in the year. Even if, and perhaps because, the Red Sox are in the playoff hunt.

Dominic Smith

NFBC draft position – Average: 684 | Minimum: 637 | Maximum: 725

Prospects 1500 Team Rank: 2nd Mets

Load up the broken record: Not on 40-man roster, needs to be protected in off-season, and team expected to be competing for a playoff spot.

It adds up to likely at-bats for Smith in September and October. In NFBC drafts, he deserves consideration  given he is averaging as a 45th round selection. In dynasty leagues, though, his cost is likely too much for a team to acquire him merely as late season help. And, debatably, he probably is not worth the expected cost. in those leagues.

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