For those that know me, it comes as no surprise I would write an article series incorporating NFBC data somehow.
I am a big fan of the format and find it to be an exciting challenge, even if I only play a much smaller buy-in and not the professional version.
But what does NFBC data have to do with minor league prospects?
What is NFBC?
You can check out the full description on their site about the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. They have multiple types of leagues, but the one I am most interested in is their draft-and-hold leagues. Here are the relevant parts to our discussion:
- Re-draft league
- 15 teams, 50 rounds, and no transactions
- $150 minimum buy-ins
These are important because for three reasons:
- Steeper entry costs mean fewer recreational players
- Re-draft means drafters believe these players have the opportunity to contribute this year
- 50 drafted players means that even minor contributions are important.
Why you should care
Well, I’m not 100% sure that you should; or at least not more than you might normally when perusing a list of minor league players. I’ve never connected NFBC ADP lists with prospect valuation before.
But, I play in two types of leagues: a super-deep 28-team league with I suspect 85-95% of all players listed on Prospects1500 Top 50’s already rostered and a 15-team league with 60 minor league slots.
I believe there is valuable information to be had for both of these leagues.
In the first, I am looking to be competitive this year (winning last year basically means I have to try for the ‘ole back-to-back). In a league that deep (700 total active roster spots), competitive teams are generally scrambling to fill rosters with relevant players for the playoffs. NFBC ADP data can be a helpful tool to spotlight players not currently on their teams’ 25-man roster but may contribute later. And those players–guys being drafted in the 35th-50th round of NFBC drafts–could make for nice targets that a competitive team might not normally consider (i.e., prospects).
For the second, the same reasoning applies. But, moreover, it is important when weighing who should occupy the minors slots. The league allows monthly pickups and competing teams, or even rebuilding teams who want attractive trade chips, may be better off using those slots on low-ceiling, expected-to-contribute in 2017 players.
Whether or not it is useful for your specific league, I hope you find these aggregated lists interesting and useful in some capacity.
I will highlight different positions, or subset of a position, each day and provide my reasoning for why that player is being selected in NFBC drafts (e.g., anticipated call-up if injury in the outfield).