As predicted (ahem), the Royals announced that Raul Mondesi will be their 2nd basemen to open the year. He had too many AB to be ranked on the off-season list, but what can the dynasty owner expect from Phenomdesi?
Last year’s big league audition did not go well, with the kid slashing 185/231/281 in 135 AB. That included a possibly fluky .270 BABIP, accented with an ugly 34% K rate.
Various projections have him rebounding a bit, probably on the basis of normalizing BABIP alone:
PECOTA: 218/247/355
ZIPS: 212/248/354
Steamer: 230/271/359
I think there is more power in there then he is getting credit for in those projections, closer to .180-.200 ISO. I wonder what the KC brass is hoping for this year- 240/270/350? Escobar has put up 260/290/340 the past two years combined.
Long term, KC is dreaming on Mondesi’s combined minor league line in 2016 of 268/322/469, with 24 SB and only 1 CS in half a season. That, coupled with amazing SS defense is a perennial All-Star in a league without Correa and Lindor.
For this year, Mondesi is likely going to be a drag on BA – and if you play in an OBP league, even more so – but should easily reach 30 SB with a dozen homers or so if he manages to avoid Omaha all year.
I’ll put him at 240/280/400, with 13 HR and 37 SB, complete with all the saucy saucy webgems you can handle.
KC Shankland lives in Maple Valley, Washington. His Royals fandom runs from the Royals/Yankees blood feud of the ‘70s to Hosmer’s mad dash home.
‘People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. Obsess over prospects.’
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